Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 leads multiple September 2026 benchmarks, including BenchAlign at 84.74 and HLE at 65%, driving the 85.5% market-implied odds for the company to hold the top large language model by end of October. Its edge stems from superior performance in reasoning, agentic coding, and knowledge work relative to OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, which trails on key indices despite strong enterprise traction. Google, Meta, and Chinese labs like Moonshot or DeepSeek post lower scores across composite rankings and lack comparable recent frontier releases. With roughly six weeks until resolution, traders price in limited time for competitors to close the gap via new model drops or benchmark updates, though rapid capability shifts remain possible before the cutoff.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 86%
Google 7.9%
Meta 5.0%
OpenAI 2.7%
$23,292 交易量
$23,292 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
86%
8%
Meta
5%
OpenAI
3%
Moonshot
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
StepFun
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 7.9%
Meta 5.0%
OpenAI 2.7%
$23,292 交易量
$23,292 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
$13,592 交易量
86%
$723 交易量
8%
Meta
$561 交易量
5%
OpenAI
$935 交易量
3%
Moonshot
$594 交易量
1%
Alibaba
$502 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$493 交易量
1%
Baidu
$357 交易量
1%
ByteDance
$429 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$456 交易量
1%
Thinky
$431 交易量
1%
Meituan
$413 交易量
1%
Nvidia
$427 交易量
1%
Tencent
$413 交易量
1%
Microsoft
$411 交易量
1%
StepFun
$414 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$359 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$426 交易量
<1%
Xiaomi
$534 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$419 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$404 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 leads multiple September 2026 benchmarks, including BenchAlign at 84.74 and HLE at 65%, driving the 85.5% market-implied odds for the company to hold the top large language model by end of October. Its edge stems from superior performance in reasoning, agentic coding, and knowledge work relative to OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, which trails on key indices despite strong enterprise traction. Google, Meta, and Chinese labs like Moonshot or DeepSeek post lower scores across composite rankings and lack comparable recent frontier releases. With roughly six weeks until resolution, traders price in limited time for competitors to close the gap via new model drops or benchmark updates, though rapid capability shifts remain possible before the cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$23,292結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 leads multiple September 2026 benchmarks, including BenchAlign at 84.74 and HLE at 65%, driving the 85.5% market-implied odds for the company to hold the top large language model by end of October. Its edge stems from superior performance in reasoning, agentic coding, and knowledge work relative to OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, which trails on key indices despite strong enterprise traction. Google, Meta, and Chinese labs like Moonshot or DeepSeek post lower scores across composite rankings and lack comparable recent frontier releases. With roughly six weeks until resolution, traders price in limited time for competitors to close the gap via new model drops or benchmark updates, though rapid capability shifts remain possible before the cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$23,292結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETAnthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 leads multiple September 2026 benchmarks, including BenchAlign at 84.74 and HLE at 65%, driving the 85.5% market-implied odds for the company to hold the top large language model by end of October. Its edge stems from superior performance in reasoning, agentic coding, and knowledge work relative to OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, which trails on key indices despite strong enterprise traction. Google, Meta, and Chinese labs like Moonshot or DeepSeek post lower scores across composite rankings and lack comparable recent frontier releases. With roughly six weeks until resolution, traders price in limited time for competitors to close the gap via new model drops or benchmark updates, though rapid capability shifts remain possible before the cutoff.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions