Google's repeated delays of the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—teased at I/O 2026 for a June launch, then slipped past July—remain the dominant factor behind the 89.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. The company has instead shipped frequent Flash variants, including Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2 and 3.7 Flash in mid-August, prioritizing rapid iteration on lighter, agentic models while 3.5 Pro continues partner testing without a firm public timeline. This pattern of timeline slippage, combined with internal focus on pre-training for Gemini 4, has reinforced trader consensus around extended delays despite the model's long-expected frontier capabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於於9月30日之前不發布 90%
9 月 30 日 4.0%
9 月 23 日 2.7%
9 月 24 日 1.6%
$83,462 交易量
$83,462 交易量
2026-09-09
9 月 9 日
<1%
9 月 10 日
<1%
9 月 11 日
1%
9 月 12 日
1%
9 月 13 日
1%
9 月 14 日
<1%
9 月 15 日
1%
9 月 16 日
1%
9 月 17 日
1%
9 月 18 日
<1%
9 月 19 日
1%
9 月 20 日
1%
9月21日
1%
9 月 22 日
1%
9 月 23 日
3%
9 月 24 日
2%
9 月 25 日
1%
9 月 26 日
1%
9 月 27 日
1%
9 月 28 日
1%
9 月 29 日
1%
9 月 30 日
4%
於9月30日之前不發布
90%
於9月30日之前不發布 90%
9 月 30 日 4.0%
9 月 23 日 2.7%
9 月 24 日 1.6%
$83,462 交易量
$83,462 交易量
2026-09-09
9 月 9 日
$331 交易量
<1%
9 月 10 日
$331 交易量
<1%
9 月 11 日
$298 交易量
1%
9 月 12 日
$302 交易量
1%
9 月 13 日
$331 交易量
1%
9 月 14 日
$404 交易量
<1%
9 月 15 日
$542 交易量
1%
9 月 16 日
$538 交易量
1%
9 月 17 日
$542 交易量
1%
9 月 18 日
$305 交易量
<1%
9 月 19 日
$302 交易量
1%
9 月 20 日
$302 交易量
1%
9月21日
$532 交易量
1%
9 月 22 日
$579 交易量
1%
9 月 23 日
$459 交易量
3%
9 月 24 日
$589 交易量
2%
9 月 25 日
$298 交易量
1%
9 月 26 日
$300 交易量
1%
9 月 27 日
$302 交易量
1%
9 月 28 日
$480 交易量
1%
9 月 29 日
$370 交易量
1%
9 月 30 日
$818 交易量
4%
於9月30日之前不發布
$69,274 交易量
90%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays of the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—teased at I/O 2026 for a June launch, then slipped past July—remain the dominant factor behind the 89.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. The company has instead shipped frequent Flash variants, including Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2 and 3.7 Flash in mid-August, prioritizing rapid iteration on lighter, agentic models while 3.5 Pro continues partner testing without a firm public timeline. This pattern of timeline slippage, combined with internal focus on pre-training for Gemini 4, has reinforced trader consensus around extended delays despite the model's long-expected frontier capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
交易量
$83,462結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays of the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—teased at I/O 2026 for a June launch, then slipped past July—remain the dominant factor behind the 89.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. The company has instead shipped frequent Flash variants, including Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2 and 3.7 Flash in mid-August, prioritizing rapid iteration on lighter, agentic models while 3.5 Pro continues partner testing without a firm public timeline. This pattern of timeline slippage, combined with internal focus on pre-training for Gemini 4, has reinforced trader consensus around extended delays despite the model's long-expected frontier capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$83,462結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETGoogle's repeated delays of the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—teased at I/O 2026 for a June launch, then slipped past July—remain the dominant factor behind the 89.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. The company has instead shipped frequent Flash variants, including Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2 and 3.7 Flash in mid-August, prioritizing rapid iteration on lighter, agentic models while 3.5 Pro continues partner testing without a firm public timeline. This pattern of timeline slippage, combined with internal focus on pre-training for Gemini 4, has reinforced trader consensus around extended delays despite the model's long-expected frontier capabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions