**Traders assign an 86.5% probability to no direct Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 primarily because sustained U.S. mediation and explicit de-escalation signals have contained the August 2026 Syria tensions.** Following Israel's airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase—intended to block potential Turkish troop or air-defense deployment—both governments reiterated red lines while avoiding direct confrontation, with Washington establishing deconfliction channels involving Israel, Turkey, and Syria. Turkish officials denied deployment plans, and Israeli statements emphasized deterrence without seeking escalation. Ongoing rivalry over Syrian influence, including Turkish control of territory and Israeli concerns about bases near its borders, continues, yet NATO membership, shared U.S. ties, and back-channel diplomacy via Azerbaijan have preserved restraint. Recent diplomatic appointments and public statements from both sides further reinforce the market's assessment that proxy competition is more likely than open conflict in the short term.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
14% 機率
$428,469 交易量
$428,469 交易量
2026-12-31
是
14% 機率
$428,469 交易量
$428,469 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders assign an 86.5% probability to no direct Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 primarily because sustained U.S. mediation and explicit de-escalation signals have contained the August 2026 Syria tensions.** Following Israel's airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase—intended to block potential Turkish troop or air-defense deployment—both governments reiterated red lines while avoiding direct confrontation, with Washington establishing deconfliction channels involving Israel, Turkey, and Syria. Turkish officials denied deployment plans, and Israeli statements emphasized deterrence without seeking escalation. Ongoing rivalry over Syrian influence, including Turkish control of territory and Israeli concerns about bases near its borders, continues, yet NATO membership, shared U.S. ties, and back-channel diplomacy via Azerbaijan have preserved restraint. Recent diplomatic appointments and public statements from both sides further reinforce the market's assessment that proxy competition is more likely than open conflict in the short term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
交易量
$428,469結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders assign an 86.5% probability to no direct Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 primarily because sustained U.S. mediation and explicit de-escalation signals have contained the August 2026 Syria tensions.** Following Israel's airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase—intended to block potential Turkish troop or air-defense deployment—both governments reiterated red lines while avoiding direct confrontation, with Washington establishing deconfliction channels involving Israel, Turkey, and Syria. Turkish officials denied deployment plans, and Israeli statements emphasized deterrence without seeking escalation. Ongoing rivalry over Syrian influence, including Turkish control of territory and Israeli concerns about bases near its borders, continues, yet NATO membership, shared U.S. ties, and back-channel diplomacy via Azerbaijan have preserved restraint. Recent diplomatic appointments and public statements from both sides further reinforce the market's assessment that proxy competition is more likely than open conflict in the short term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$428,469結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET**Traders assign an 86.5% probability to no direct Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 primarily because sustained U.S. mediation and explicit de-escalation signals have contained the August 2026 Syria tensions.** Following Israel's airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase—intended to block potential Turkish troop or air-defense deployment—both governments reiterated red lines while avoiding direct confrontation, with Washington establishing deconfliction channels involving Israel, Turkey, and Syria. Turkish officials denied deployment plans, and Israeli statements emphasized deterrence without seeking escalation. Ongoing rivalry over Syrian influence, including Turkish control of territory and Israeli concerns about bases near its borders, continues, yet NATO membership, shared U.S. ties, and back-channel diplomacy via Azerbaijan have preserved restraint. Recent diplomatic appointments and public statements from both sides further reinforce the market's assessment that proxy competition is more likely than open conflict in the short term.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions