The Iranian regime's survival through the early 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and nationwide protests that authorities quelled with lethal force has reinforced trader views that core structures—including the Supreme Leader's office, Guardian Council, and IRGC oversight—will hold through December 2026. Security forces maintained cohesion without major defections, while leadership transition preserved clerical authority despite elite tensions and economic contraction. Persistent factors such as rial depreciation, inflation above 60 percent, energy shortages, and scattered protests have not yet produced the broad elite fractures or popular mobilization needed for rapid collapse. Traders price the low probability of regime fall before 2027 on this demonstrated resilience and short remaining timeline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
7% 機率
$25,695,379 交易量
$25,695,379 交易量
2026-12-31
是
7% 機率
$25,695,379 交易量
$25,695,379 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the early 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and nationwide protests that authorities quelled with lethal force has reinforced trader views that core structures—including the Supreme Leader's office, Guardian Council, and IRGC oversight—will hold through December 2026. Security forces maintained cohesion without major defections, while leadership transition preserved clerical authority despite elite tensions and economic contraction. Persistent factors such as rial depreciation, inflation above 60 percent, energy shortages, and scattered protests have not yet produced the broad elite fractures or popular mobilization needed for rapid collapse. Traders price the low probability of regime fall before 2027 on this demonstrated resilience and short remaining timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
交易量
$25,695,379結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the early 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and nationwide protests that authorities quelled with lethal force has reinforced trader views that core structures—including the Supreme Leader's office, Guardian Council, and IRGC oversight—will hold through December 2026. Security forces maintained cohesion without major defections, while leadership transition preserved clerical authority despite elite tensions and economic contraction. Persistent factors such as rial depreciation, inflation above 60 percent, energy shortages, and scattered protests have not yet produced the broad elite fractures or popular mobilization needed for rapid collapse. Traders price the low probability of regime fall before 2027 on this demonstrated resilience and short remaining timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$25,696,449結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETThe Iranian regime's survival through the early 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and nationwide protests that authorities quelled with lethal force has reinforced trader views that core structures—including the Supreme Leader's office, Guardian Council, and IRGC oversight—will hold through December 2026. Security forces maintained cohesion without major defections, while leadership transition preserved clerical authority despite elite tensions and economic contraction. Persistent factors such as rial depreciation, inflation above 60 percent, energy shortages, and scattered protests have not yet produced the broad elite fractures or popular mobilization needed for rapid collapse. Traders price the low probability of regime fall before 2027 on this demonstrated resilience and short remaining timeline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions