Mojtaba Khamenei’s prolonged absence from public view since his March 2026 appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader remains the dominant factor shaping trader views on any near-term appearance. Appointed days after his father Ali Khamenei’s February 28 assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes, he sustained reported injuries to his face and legs yet has issued only written statements while skipping the July state funeral and other ceremonies. Iranian state media have circulated undated or older video clips and attributed military appointments and messages to him, but none constitute verified live or recent public footage. Security concerns tied to the ongoing conflict, combined with efforts to project continuity through proxies and the IRGC, have sustained speculation about his condition and decision-making role. Any scheduled religious events, leadership announcements, or shifts in the conflict could alter the timeline for a confirmed appearance.