**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since the February 2026 airstrikes and June memorandum of understanding have centered on air and missile campaigns, sanctions, and Strait of Hormuz pressures rather than ground operations.** Sporadic strikes and negotiations through mediators like Qatar and Pakistan continued into September 2026 amid economic strain on Iran, but US actions have emphasized aerial targeting of military and coastal sites alongside diplomatic efforts. Military analysts highlight the extraordinary risks, troop requirements, and logistical challenges of a large-scale ground invasion of mainland Iran, noting preferences for limited options such as island seizures or sustained pressure short of occupation. These factors underpin traders’ strong consensus that a full US invasion remains unlikely before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
15% 機率
$65,105,122 交易量
$65,105,122 交易量
2026-12-31
是
15% 機率
$65,105,122 交易量
$65,105,122 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since the February 2026 airstrikes and June memorandum of understanding have centered on air and missile campaigns, sanctions, and Strait of Hormuz pressures rather than ground operations.** Sporadic strikes and negotiations through mediators like Qatar and Pakistan continued into September 2026 amid economic strain on Iran, but US actions have emphasized aerial targeting of military and coastal sites alongside diplomatic efforts. Military analysts highlight the extraordinary risks, troop requirements, and logistical challenges of a large-scale ground invasion of mainland Iran, noting preferences for limited options such as island seizures or sustained pressure short of occupation. These factors underpin traders’ strong consensus that a full US invasion remains unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
交易量
$65,105,122結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since the February 2026 airstrikes and June memorandum of understanding have centered on air and missile campaigns, sanctions, and Strait of Hormuz pressures rather than ground operations.** Sporadic strikes and negotiations through mediators like Qatar and Pakistan continued into September 2026 amid economic strain on Iran, but US actions have emphasized aerial targeting of military and coastal sites alongside diplomatic efforts. Military analysts highlight the extraordinary risks, troop requirements, and logistical challenges of a large-scale ground invasion of mainland Iran, noting preferences for limited options such as island seizures or sustained pressure short of occupation. These factors underpin traders’ strong consensus that a full US invasion remains unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$65,105,122結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since the February 2026 airstrikes and June memorandum of understanding have centered on air and missile campaigns, sanctions, and Strait of Hormuz pressures rather than ground operations.** Sporadic strikes and negotiations through mediators like Qatar and Pakistan continued into September 2026 amid economic strain on Iran, but US actions have emphasized aerial targeting of military and coastal sites alongside diplomatic efforts. Military analysts highlight the extraordinary risks, troop requirements, and logistical challenges of a large-scale ground invasion of mainland Iran, noting preferences for limited options such as island seizures or sustained pressure short of occupation. These factors underpin traders’ strong consensus that a full US invasion remains unlikely before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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