Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election show Ra'am projected to secure roughly five seats, translating to a vote share near the 4-4.75% range that commands the highest trader probability. This positioning reflects the party's efforts to broaden its base through a technical bloc with former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz and outreach to Jewish voters, alongside consistent Arab-sector support amid high crime concerns and calls for coalition participation in a potential change government. Competition from the Joint List, variable Arab turnout, and a September 9 disqualification petition filed by Otzma Yehudit against Ra'am and Mansour Abbas introduce downside risks that sustain notable probability on sub-4% outcomes. The narrow distribution across bins around the electoral threshold underscores how small shifts in Arab-list consolidation or bloc dynamics could separate the results.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4-4.75% 32%
少於3.25% 26%
3.25-4% 16%
4.75-5.5% 13%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
少於3.25%
25%
3.25-4%
16%
4-4.75%
32%
4.75-5.5%
13%
5.5%以上
8%
4-4.75% 32%
少於3.25% 26%
3.25-4% 16%
4.75-5.5% 13%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
少於3.25%
$86 交易量
25%
3.25-4%
$79 交易量
16%
4-4.75%
$542 交易量
32%
4.75-5.5%
$113 交易量
13%
5.5%以上
$146 交易量
8%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election show Ra'am projected to secure roughly five seats, translating to a vote share near the 4-4.75% range that commands the highest trader probability. This positioning reflects the party's efforts to broaden its base through a technical bloc with former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz and outreach to Jewish voters, alongside consistent Arab-sector support amid high crime concerns and calls for coalition participation in a potential change government. Competition from the Joint List, variable Arab turnout, and a September 9 disqualification petition filed by Otzma Yehudit against Ra'am and Mansour Abbas introduce downside risks that sustain notable probability on sub-4% outcomes. The narrow distribution across bins around the electoral threshold underscores how small shifts in Arab-list consolidation or bloc dynamics could separate the results.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
市場開放時間： Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
交易量
$966結束日期
2026-10-27市場開放時間
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETLegislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election show Ra'am projected to secure roughly five seats, translating to a vote share near the 4-4.75% range that commands the highest trader probability. This positioning reflects the party's efforts to broaden its base through a technical bloc with former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz and outreach to Jewish voters, alongside consistent Arab-sector support amid high crime concerns and calls for coalition participation in a potential change government. Competition from the Joint List, variable Arab turnout, and a September 9 disqualification petition filed by Otzma Yehudit against Ra'am and Mansour Abbas introduce downside risks that sustain notable probability on sub-4% outcomes. The narrow distribution across bins around the electoral threshold underscores how small shifts in Arab-list consolidation or bloc dynamics could separate the results.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
交易量
$966結束日期
2026-10-27市場開放時間
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETRecent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election show Ra'am projected to secure roughly five seats, translating to a vote share near the 4-4.75% range that commands the highest trader probability. This positioning reflects the party's efforts to broaden its base through a technical bloc with former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz and outreach to Jewish voters, alongside consistent Arab-sector support amid high crime concerns and calls for coalition participation in a potential change government. Competition from the Joint List, variable Arab turnout, and a September 9 disqualification petition filed by Otzma Yehudit against Ra'am and Mansour Abbas introduce downside risks that sustain notable probability on sub-4% outcomes. The narrow distribution across bins around the electoral threshold underscores how small shifts in Arab-list consolidation or bloc dynamics could separate the results.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions