**Multiple bipartisan AI oversight proposals have advanced through House committees or been introduced in 2026, yet none have cleared both chambers or received presidential approval.** Recent efforts include the Obernolte-Trahan framework for frontier model audits, incident reporting, and limited emergency authorities, narrower Senate measures on targeted duties of care, and newer proposals on AI agents or superintelligence risks. Lawmakers from both parties cite persistent divisions over federal preemption of state rules, regulatory scope, and enforcement mechanisms as key obstacles. With the current Congress facing limited session time before year-end and uncertain prospects for consensus in 2027, traders assign high probability to no comprehensive AI safety bill becoming law before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
15% 機率
$102,034 交易量
$102,034 交易量
2026-12-31
是
15% 機率
$102,034 交易量
$102,034 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Multiple bipartisan AI oversight proposals have advanced through House committees or been introduced in 2026, yet none have cleared both chambers or received presidential approval.** Recent efforts include the Obernolte-Trahan framework for frontier model audits, incident reporting, and limited emergency authorities, narrower Senate measures on targeted duties of care, and newer proposals on AI agents or superintelligence risks. Lawmakers from both parties cite persistent divisions over federal preemption of state rules, regulatory scope, and enforcement mechanisms as key obstacles. With the current Congress facing limited session time before year-end and uncertain prospects for consensus in 2027, traders assign high probability to no comprehensive AI safety bill becoming law before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
交易量
$102,034結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Multiple bipartisan AI oversight proposals have advanced through House committees or been introduced in 2026, yet none have cleared both chambers or received presidential approval.** Recent efforts include the Obernolte-Trahan framework for frontier model audits, incident reporting, and limited emergency authorities, narrower Senate measures on targeted duties of care, and newer proposals on AI agents or superintelligence risks. Lawmakers from both parties cite persistent divisions over federal preemption of state rules, regulatory scope, and enforcement mechanisms as key obstacles. With the current Congress facing limited session time before year-end and uncertain prospects for consensus in 2027, traders assign high probability to no comprehensive AI safety bill becoming law before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$102,034結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET**Multiple bipartisan AI oversight proposals have advanced through House committees or been introduced in 2026, yet none have cleared both chambers or received presidential approval.** Recent efforts include the Obernolte-Trahan framework for frontier model audits, incident reporting, and limited emergency authorities, narrower Senate measures on targeted duties of care, and newer proposals on AI agents or superintelligence risks. Lawmakers from both parties cite persistent divisions over federal preemption of state rules, regulatory scope, and enforcement mechanisms as key obstacles. With the current Congress facing limited session time before year-end and uncertain prospects for consensus in 2027, traders assign high probability to no comprehensive AI safety bill becoming law before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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