Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the strongest position in recent polling for Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, with Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data surveys from early September 2026 placing her ahead on consolidated first- and second-choice votes. Traders have priced this lead into a 76% implied probability she finishes first, reflecting her consistent edge over Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL). The race features alliances tied to the concurrent gubernatorial contest, including Arraes and Costa on the João Campos (PSB) ticket. Minor candidates such as Eduardo da Fonte (PP), Túlio Gadêlha (PSD), and others trail further back in the same surveys, aligning with their lower market prices. No major shifts have altered the ordering in the latest releases, though the October 4 election remains weeks away and undecided voters exceed 20% in most samples.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMarília Arraes 76%
Humberto Costa 10.6%
Mendonça Filho 8.2%
Eduardo da Fonte 6.5%
$30,775 KL.
$30,775 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
76%
Humberto Costa
11%
Mendonça Filho
8%
Eduardo da Fonte
7%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Marília Arraes 76%
Humberto Costa 10.6%
Mendonça Filho 8.2%
Eduardo da Fonte 6.5%
$30,775 KL.
$30,775 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
$15,332 KL.
76%
Humberto Costa
$8,538 KL.
11%
Mendonça Filho
$1,327 KL.
8%
Eduardo da Fonte
$879 KL.
7%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$634 KL.
<1%
Gorett Bitu
$633 KL.
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$624 KL.
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
$557 KL.
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
$625 KL.
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$575 KL.
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$528 KL.
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$523 KL.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the strongest position in recent polling for Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, with Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data surveys from early September 2026 placing her ahead on consolidated first- and second-choice votes. Traders have priced this lead into a 76% implied probability she finishes first, reflecting her consistent edge over Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL). The race features alliances tied to the concurrent gubernatorial contest, including Arraes and Costa on the João Campos (PSB) ticket. Minor candidates such as Eduardo da Fonte (PP), Túlio Gadêlha (PSD), and others trail further back in the same surveys, aligning with their lower market prices. No major shifts have altered the ordering in the latest releases, though the October 4 election remains weeks away and undecided voters exceed 20% in most samples.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Khối lượng
$30,775Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the strongest position in recent polling for Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, with Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data surveys from early September 2026 placing her ahead on consolidated first- and second-choice votes. Traders have priced this lead into a 76% implied probability she finishes first, reflecting her consistent edge over Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL). The race features alliances tied to the concurrent gubernatorial contest, including Arraes and Costa on the João Campos (PSB) ticket. Minor candidates such as Eduardo da Fonte (PP), Túlio Gadêlha (PSD), and others trail further back in the same surveys, aligning with their lower market prices. No major shifts have altered the ordering in the latest releases, though the October 4 election remains weeks away and undecided voters exceed 20% in most samples.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Khối lượng
$30,775Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the strongest position in recent polling for Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, with Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data surveys from early September 2026 placing her ahead on consolidated first- and second-choice votes. Traders have priced this lead into a 76% implied probability she finishes first, reflecting her consistent edge over Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL). The race features alliances tied to the concurrent gubernatorial contest, including Arraes and Costa on the João Campos (PSB) ticket. Minor candidates such as Eduardo da Fonte (PP), Túlio Gadêlha (PSD), and others trail further back in the same surveys, aligning with their lower market prices. No major shifts have altered the ordering in the latest releases, though the October 4 election remains weeks away and undecided voters exceed 20% in most samples.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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