Recent polls from Meio/Ideia, Nexus, Quaest, and Datafolha show President Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by a shrinking margin in first-round voting intentions, now often within the margin of error around 38-39% to 35-37%, with Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado trailing in low single digits. Lula’s support has declined amid falling government approval ratings and revelations tied to Supreme Court proceedings, while Flávio Bolsonaro has gained from right-wing rallies and voter dissatisfaction with institutional figures. The October 4 first-round vote and high rejection rates for both frontrunners reinforce expectations of a narrow result, aligning with trader pricing that places the highest probabilities on Lula winning by less than 10 points or Flávio finishing within 5 points.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 43%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 30%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 18.1%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 4.5%
$415,252 KL.
$415,252 KL.
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
3%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
5%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
30%
Lula da Silva <5%
43%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
18%
Renan Santos Victory
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
<1%
Lula da Silva <5% 43%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 30%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 18.1%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 4.5%
$415,252 KL.
$415,252 KL.
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$18,333 KL.
3%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$37,176 KL.
5%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$30,145 KL.
30%
Lula da Silva <5%
$37,262 KL.
43%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$14,282 KL.
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$14,078 KL.
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$23,775 KL.
18%
Renan Santos Victory
$215,430 KL.
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$8,399 KL.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$7,742 KL.
<1%
Other
$8,630 KL.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Meio/Ideia, Nexus, Quaest, and Datafolha show President Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by a shrinking margin in first-round voting intentions, now often within the margin of error around 38-39% to 35-37%, with Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado trailing in low single digits. Lula’s support has declined amid falling government approval ratings and revelations tied to Supreme Court proceedings, while Flávio Bolsonaro has gained from right-wing rallies and voter dissatisfaction with institutional figures. The October 4 first-round vote and high rejection rates for both frontrunners reinforce expectations of a narrow result, aligning with trader pricing that places the highest probabilities on Lula winning by less than 10 points or Flávio finishing within 5 points.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Khối lượng
$415,252Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Meio/Ideia, Nexus, Quaest, and Datafolha show President Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by a shrinking margin in first-round voting intentions, now often within the margin of error around 38-39% to 35-37%, with Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado trailing in low single digits. Lula’s support has declined amid falling government approval ratings and revelations tied to Supreme Court proceedings, while Flávio Bolsonaro has gained from right-wing rallies and voter dissatisfaction with institutional figures. The October 4 first-round vote and high rejection rates for both frontrunners reinforce expectations of a narrow result, aligning with trader pricing that places the highest probabilities on Lula winning by less than 10 points or Flávio finishing within 5 points.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Khối lượng
$415,252Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Meio/Ideia, Nexus, Quaest, and Datafolha show President Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by a shrinking margin in first-round voting intentions, now often within the margin of error around 38-39% to 35-37%, with Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado trailing in low single digits. Lula’s support has declined amid falling government approval ratings and revelations tied to Supreme Court proceedings, while Flávio Bolsonaro has gained from right-wing rallies and voter dissatisfaction with institutional figures. The October 4 first-round vote and high rejection rates for both frontrunners reinforce expectations of a narrow result, aligning with trader pricing that places the highest probabilities on Lula winning by less than 10 points or Flávio finishing within 5 points.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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