Recent low-humidity alerts from INMET across much of Minas Gerais, combined with confirmed El Niño development, are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds clustered around moderate drought ranges for the coffee season. Flowering begins with September-October rains; any delay or irregularity from the current dry spell risks soil-moisture deficits during reproductive stages, while January-March fruit fill remains vulnerable to prolonged water stress. Recent above-average winter rainfall improved reservoir levels and vegetative recovery after 2025-26 drought episodes, yet model divergence on El Niño intensity and steering patterns creates uncertainty whether peak severe drought (measured by official indices) stays below 20 percent or reaches 40-60 percent of the state. Updated INMET and seasonal forecasts through October will clarify resolution thresholds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPeak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?
Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?
20% to 39.99% 33%
40% to 59.99% 21%
5% to 19.99% 17%
60% or more 17%
MỚI
MỚI
Apr 30, 2027
Under 5%
6%
5% to 19.99%
24%
20% to 39.99%
33%
40% to 59.99%
21%
60% or more
17%
20% to 39.99% 33%
40% to 59.99% 21%
5% to 19.99% 17%
60% or more 17%
MỚI
MỚI
Apr 30, 2027
Under 5%
$342 KL.
6%
5% to 19.99%
$1,375 KL.
24%
20% to 39.99%
$3,170 KL.
33%
40% to 59.99%
$2,202 KL.
21%
60% or more
$472 KL.
17%
This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.Recent low-humidity alerts from INMET across much of Minas Gerais, combined with confirmed El Niño development, are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds clustered around moderate drought ranges for the coffee season. Flowering begins with September-October rains; any delay or irregularity from the current dry spell risks soil-moisture deficits during reproductive stages, while January-March fruit fill remains vulnerable to prolonged water stress. Recent above-average winter rainfall improved reservoir levels and vegetative recovery after 2025-26 drought episodes, yet model divergence on El Niño intensity and steering patterns creates uncertainty whether peak severe drought (measured by official indices) stays below 20 percent or reaches 40-60 percent of the state. Updated INMET and seasonal forecasts through October will clarify resolution thresholds.
This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.
Thị trường mở: Sep 8, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,561Ngày kết thúc
May 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Sep 8, 2026, 4:33 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.Recent low-humidity alerts from INMET across much of Minas Gerais, combined with confirmed El Niño development, are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds clustered around moderate drought ranges for the coffee season. Flowering begins with September-October rains; any delay or irregularity from the current dry spell risks soil-moisture deficits during reproductive stages, while January-March fruit fill remains vulnerable to prolonged water stress. Recent above-average winter rainfall improved reservoir levels and vegetative recovery after 2025-26 drought episodes, yet model divergence on El Niño intensity and steering patterns creates uncertainty whether peak severe drought (measured by official indices) stays below 20 percent or reaches 40-60 percent of the state. Updated INMET and seasonal forecasts through October will clarify resolution thresholds.
This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.
Khối lượng
$7,561Ngày kết thúc
May 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Sep 8, 2026, 4:33 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent low-humidity alerts from INMET across much of Minas Gerais, combined with confirmed El Niño development, are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds clustered around moderate drought ranges for the coffee season. Flowering begins with September-October rains; any delay or irregularity from the current dry spell risks soil-moisture deficits during reproductive stages, while January-March fruit fill remains vulnerable to prolonged water stress. Recent above-average winter rainfall improved reservoir levels and vegetative recovery after 2025-26 drought episodes, yet model divergence on El Niño intensity and steering patterns creates uncertainty whether peak severe drought (measured by official indices) stays below 20 percent or reaches 40-60 percent of the state. Updated INMET and seasonal forecasts through October will clarify resolution thresholds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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