Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead first-round polling averages by wide margins ahead of the October 4, 2026, election, with Lula typically at 38–44% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 34–42%. Other registered candidates, including Renan Santos, Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, remain in single digits and show limited momentum to overtake the frontrunners. Recent surveys indicate a tight but consistent gap between the top two, with runoff simulations showing near ties that underscore voter polarization between the Workers’ Party and the Liberal Party. The first-round threshold of 50% plus one vote makes advancement by any third candidate unlikely absent a major late shift in turnout or endorsements. The runoff, if required, is scheduled for October 25.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhich candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
$666,286 KL.
Oct 3, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
98%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
96%
Renan Santos
1%
Romeu Zema
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
$666,286 KL.
Flavio Bolsonaro
$110,938 KL.
98%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$317,581 KL.
96%
Renan Santos
$26,900 KL.
1%
Romeu Zema
$1,448 KL.
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
$86,608 KL.
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$37,835 KL.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$918 KL.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$18,115 KL.
1%
Fernando Haddad
$65,944 KL.
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead first-round polling averages by wide margins ahead of the October 4, 2026, election, with Lula typically at 38–44% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 34–42%. Other registered candidates, including Renan Santos, Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, remain in single digits and show limited momentum to overtake the frontrunners. Recent surveys indicate a tight but consistent gap between the top two, with runoff simulations showing near ties that underscore voter polarization between the Workers’ Party and the Liberal Party. The first-round threshold of 50% plus one vote makes advancement by any third candidate unlikely absent a major late shift in turnout or endorsements. The runoff, if required, is scheduled for October 25.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$666,286Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead first-round polling averages by wide margins ahead of the October 4, 2026, election, with Lula typically at 38–44% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 34–42%. Other registered candidates, including Renan Santos, Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, remain in single digits and show limited momentum to overtake the frontrunners. Recent surveys indicate a tight but consistent gap between the top two, with runoff simulations showing near ties that underscore voter polarization between the Workers’ Party and the Liberal Party. The first-round threshold of 50% plus one vote makes advancement by any third candidate unlikely absent a major late shift in turnout or endorsements. The runoff, if required, is scheduled for October 25.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Khối lượng
$666,286Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead first-round polling averages by wide margins ahead of the October 4, 2026, election, with Lula typically at 38–44% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 34–42%. Other registered candidates, including Renan Santos, Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, remain in single digits and show limited momentum to overtake the frontrunners. Recent surveys indicate a tight but consistent gap between the top two, with runoff simulations showing near ties that underscore voter polarization between the Workers’ Party and the Liberal Party. The first-round threshold of 50% plus one vote makes advancement by any third candidate unlikely absent a major late shift in turnout or endorsements. The runoff, if required, is scheduled for October 25.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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