Recent polling and forecasting models show multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered within a few points, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and the Ohio special election emerging as the tightest based on current averages. Open seats in Michigan and Iowa, combined with strong challengers in Texas and Alaska, have narrowed margins compared to historical baselines in those states. Maine and Nebraska remain competitive due to candidate matchups and shifting turnout patterns. Traders appear to weigh recent surveys showing these races as toss-ups or near-toss-ups against structural factors like incumbency and state partisan lean. Upcoming debates, final fundraising reports, and any late national shifts could further consolidate or disperse support among these leading outcomes ahead of November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtClosest Senate Race?
Closest Senate Race?
Texas 14%
Iowa 13.3%
Michigan 10.8%
Alaska 10%
$37,613 KL.
$37,613 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
14%
Iowa
13%
Michigan
11%
Alaska
10%
Ohio (Special)
9%
Nebraska
8%
Maine
8%
North Carolina
4%
Virginia
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
New Hampshire
3%
Georgia
2%
Minnesota
1%
New Mexico
1%
Montana
1%
Colorado
<1%
Texas 14%
Iowa 13.3%
Michigan 10.8%
Alaska 10%
$37,613 KL.
$37,613 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,836 KL.
14%
Iowa
$3,110 KL.
13%
Michigan
$2,978 KL.
11%
Alaska
$7,340 KL.
10%
Ohio (Special)
$8,954 KL.
9%
Nebraska
$360 KL.
8%
Maine
$1,309 KL.
8%
North Carolina
$851 KL.
4%
Virginia
$5,073 KL.
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 KL.
3%
New Hampshire
$670 KL.
3%
Georgia
$824 KL.
2%
Minnesota
$1,494 KL.
1%
New Mexico
$160 KL.
1%
Montana
$1,344 KL.
1%
Colorado
$1,057 KL.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling and forecasting models show multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered within a few points, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and the Ohio special election emerging as the tightest based on current averages. Open seats in Michigan and Iowa, combined with strong challengers in Texas and Alaska, have narrowed margins compared to historical baselines in those states. Maine and Nebraska remain competitive due to candidate matchups and shifting turnout patterns. Traders appear to weigh recent surveys showing these races as toss-ups or near-toss-ups against structural factors like incumbency and state partisan lean. Upcoming debates, final fundraising reports, and any late national shifts could further consolidate or disperse support among these leading outcomes ahead of November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Khối lượng
$37,613Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling and forecasting models show multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered within a few points, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and the Ohio special election emerging as the tightest based on current averages. Open seats in Michigan and Iowa, combined with strong challengers in Texas and Alaska, have narrowed margins compared to historical baselines in those states. Maine and Nebraska remain competitive due to candidate matchups and shifting turnout patterns. Traders appear to weigh recent surveys showing these races as toss-ups or near-toss-ups against structural factors like incumbency and state partisan lean. Upcoming debates, final fundraising reports, and any late national shifts could further consolidate or disperse support among these leading outcomes ahead of November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$37,613Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling and forecasting models show multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered within a few points, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and the Ohio special election emerging as the tightest based on current averages. Open seats in Michigan and Iowa, combined with strong challengers in Texas and Alaska, have narrowed margins compared to historical baselines in those states. Maine and Nebraska remain competitive due to candidate matchups and shifting turnout patterns. Traders appear to weigh recent surveys showing these races as toss-ups or near-toss-ups against structural factors like incumbency and state partisan lean. Upcoming debates, final fundraising reports, and any late national shifts could further consolidate or disperse support among these leading outcomes ahead of November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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