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icon for Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?
Світ·Близький Схід

Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?

icon for Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?
Світ·Близький Схід

Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?

Моджтаба Хаменеї 84.7%

Немає Глави держави 4.5%

Реза Пехлеві 2.9%

Махмуд Ахмадінеджад 1.3%

Polymarket

$39,365,160 Обс.

Моджтаба Хаменеї 84.7%

Немає Глави держави 4.5%

Реза Пехлеві 2.9%

Махмуд Ахмадінеджад 1.3%

Polymarket

$39,365,160 Обс.

Моджтаба Хаменеї

$6,474,161 Обс.

85%

Немає Глави держави

$1,161,271 Обс.

4%

Реза Пехлеві

$679,958 Обс.

3%

Махмуд Ахмадінеджад

$1,131,275 Обс.

1%

Аліреза Арафі

$2,317,306 Обс.

1%

Хасан Рухані

$948,210 Обс.

1%

Масуд Пезешкіан

$1,021,854 Обс.

<1%

Ахмад Вахіді

$780,494 Обс.

<1%

Мохаммад-Багер Калібаф

$921,860 Обс.

<1%

Хасан Хомейні

$1,434,950 Обс.

<1%

Аббас Арагчі

$834,760 Обс.

<1%

Мухаммад Мірбакірі

$441,774 Обс.

<1%

Садег Ларіджані

$546,677 Обс.

<1%

Сейед Хоссейн Мусавіан

$3,694,989 Обс.

<1%

Садеґ Махсулі

$243,571 Обс.

<1%

Хасан Шаріатмадинарі

$3,156,951 Обс.

<1%

Массуд Раджаві

$406,291 Обс.

<1%

Реза Пірзаде

$151,258 Обс.

<1%

Навід Шомалі

$227,643 Обс.

<1%

Алі Мотахарі

$845,417 Обс.

<1%

Голам-Алі Хаддад-Адел

$440,839 Обс.

<1%

Мостафа Пурмохаммаді

$3,359,291 Обс.

<1%

Саїд Джалілі

$397,419 Обс.

<1%

Мохаммад Хатамі

$5,214,448 Обс.

<1%

Мохсен Аракі

$293,721 Обс.

<1%

Алі Асґар Хеджазі

$352,114 Обс.

<1%

Марʼям Раджаві

$863,867 Обс.

<1%

Мустафа Хіджрі

$205,808 Обс.

<1%

Насір Хоссейні

$266,607 Обс.

<1%

Ахмад Хоссейні Хорасані

$313,518 Обс.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s dominant market position stems from his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader following the U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, in late February. This rapid transition consolidated power around the younger Khamenei, who maintains close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps amid ongoing conflict. Recent presidential statements in August 2026 affirming his full health and active decision-making have reinforced perceptions of continuity, while the absence of scheduled elections or constitutional challenges before year-end limits near-term alternatives. Lower probabilities for figures such as Alireza Arafi, Hassan Khomeini, or others reflect their secondary roles in the interim council or limited institutional support during wartime consolidation. Trader consensus prices in the high probability of no major disruption to the current leadership structure by December 31.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Обсяг
$39,365,160
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s dominant market position stems from his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader following the U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, in late February. This rapid transition consolidated power around the younger Khamenei, who maintains close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps amid ongoing conflict. Recent presidential statements in August 2026 affirming his full health and active decision-making have reinforced perceptions of continuity, while the absence of scheduled elections or constitutional challenges before year-end limits near-term alternatives. Lower probabilities for figures such as Alireza Arafi, Hassan Khomeini, or others reflect their secondary roles in the interim council or limited institutional support during wartime consolidation. Trader consensus prices in the high probability of no major disruption to the current leadership structure by December 31.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Обсяг
$39,365,160
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x69c47De9D...

Пов'язане

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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 32 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Моджтаба Хаменеї» з 85%, далі «Немає Глави держави» з 4%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» згенерував $39.4 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Feb 28, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?», перегляньте 32 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» — «Моджтаба Хаменеї» з 85%. Наступний — «Немає Глави держави» з 4%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.