Traders view a low likelihood of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027, reflecting sustained international sanctions, ongoing IAEA monitoring of enrichment activities, and assessments that weaponization remains technically distant. Regional security constraints and diplomatic pressures have kept Iran's program below the threshold for a deliverable device in the near term. Shifts could still occur from accelerated enrichment advances, changes in US or Israeli policy postures, or unforeseen escalations in Middle East conflicts that reshape strategic priorities within the resolution window.