Iranian officials and lawmakers have intensified rhetoric around NPT withdrawal in recent weeks, with 130 parliamentarians urging formal action in mid-September 2026 and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei stating the option depends on U.S. conduct amid IAEA non-compliance findings and prior military strikes on nuclear sites. These developments reflect ongoing tensions over safeguards access, enriched uranium stockpiles, and diplomatic breakdowns following the collapsed June 2026 U.S.-Iran MOU. However, withdrawal under Article X requires a formal parliamentary process, three months’ notice, and a determination of supreme national interests, none of which have advanced to execution. Traders assign an 89.9% probability against exit before 2027, viewing the moves as leverage in negotiations rather than imminent policy shifts, consistent with historical patterns where threats have not translated into treaty departure.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
10% шанс
$577,784 Обс.
$577,784 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
10% шанс
$577,784 Обс.
$577,784 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and lawmakers have intensified rhetoric around NPT withdrawal in recent weeks, with 130 parliamentarians urging formal action in mid-September 2026 and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei stating the option depends on U.S. conduct amid IAEA non-compliance findings and prior military strikes on nuclear sites. These developments reflect ongoing tensions over safeguards access, enriched uranium stockpiles, and diplomatic breakdowns following the collapsed June 2026 U.S.-Iran MOU. However, withdrawal under Article X requires a formal parliamentary process, three months’ notice, and a determination of supreme national interests, none of which have advanced to execution. Traders assign an 89.9% probability against exit before 2027, viewing the moves as leverage in negotiations rather than imminent policy shifts, consistent with historical patterns where threats have not translated into treaty departure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$577,784Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and lawmakers have intensified rhetoric around NPT withdrawal in recent weeks, with 130 parliamentarians urging formal action in mid-September 2026 and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei stating the option depends on U.S. conduct amid IAEA non-compliance findings and prior military strikes on nuclear sites. These developments reflect ongoing tensions over safeguards access, enriched uranium stockpiles, and diplomatic breakdowns following the collapsed June 2026 U.S.-Iran MOU. However, withdrawal under Article X requires a formal parliamentary process, three months’ notice, and a determination of supreme national interests, none of which have advanced to execution. Traders assign an 89.9% probability against exit before 2027, viewing the moves as leverage in negotiations rather than imminent policy shifts, consistent with historical patterns where threats have not translated into treaty departure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$577,784Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Iranian officials and lawmakers have intensified rhetoric around NPT withdrawal in recent weeks, with 130 parliamentarians urging formal action in mid-September 2026 and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei stating the option depends on U.S. conduct amid IAEA non-compliance findings and prior military strikes on nuclear sites. These developments reflect ongoing tensions over safeguards access, enriched uranium stockpiles, and diplomatic breakdowns following the collapsed June 2026 U.S.-Iran MOU. However, withdrawal under Article X requires a formal parliamentary process, three months’ notice, and a determination of supreme national interests, none of which have advanced to execution. Traders assign an 89.9% probability against exit before 2027, viewing the moves as leverage in negotiations rather than imminent policy shifts, consistent with historical patterns where threats have not translated into treaty departure.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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