The regime's survival through early 2026 protests, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent U.S.-Israeli strikes has reinforced trader expectations of continuity into 2027. Security forces conducted a lethal crackdown that quelled nationwide demonstrations by March, with minimal reported defections from the IRGC or Basij. Succession to Mojtaba Khamenei consolidated power among hardline military and clerical factions, enabling continued operations amid the ongoing conflict, including recent diplomatic outreach via Qatar to end hostilities and lift sanctions. Economic strains and intermittent unrest persist, yet the system's command redundancies, internet controls, and elite cohesion have prevented the rapid internal fragmentation needed for collapse. With only months remaining before 2027, these factors underpin the 93.5% implied probability on "No."
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЧи впаде іранський режим до 2027 року?
Чи впаде іранський режим до 2027 року?
Так
7% шанс
$26,181,269 Обс.
$26,181,269 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Так
7% шанс
$26,181,269 Обс.
$26,181,269 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The regime's survival through early 2026 protests, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent U.S.-Israeli strikes has reinforced trader expectations of continuity into 2027. Security forces conducted a lethal crackdown that quelled nationwide demonstrations by March, with minimal reported defections from the IRGC or Basij. Succession to Mojtaba Khamenei consolidated power among hardline military and clerical factions, enabling continued operations amid the ongoing conflict, including recent diplomatic outreach via Qatar to end hostilities and lift sanctions. Economic strains and intermittent unrest persist, yet the system's command redundancies, internet controls, and elite cohesion have prevented the rapid internal fragmentation needed for collapse. With only months remaining before 2027, these factors underpin the 93.5% implied probability on "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Обсяг
$26,181,269Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The regime's survival through early 2026 protests, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent U.S.-Israeli strikes has reinforced trader expectations of continuity into 2027. Security forces conducted a lethal crackdown that quelled nationwide demonstrations by March, with minimal reported defections from the IRGC or Basij. Succession to Mojtaba Khamenei consolidated power among hardline military and clerical factions, enabling continued operations amid the ongoing conflict, including recent diplomatic outreach via Qatar to end hostilities and lift sanctions. Economic strains and intermittent unrest persist, yet the system's command redundancies, internet controls, and elite cohesion have prevented the rapid internal fragmentation needed for collapse. With only months remaining before 2027, these factors underpin the 93.5% implied probability on "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$26,181,269Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...The regime's survival through early 2026 protests, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent U.S.-Israeli strikes has reinforced trader expectations of continuity into 2027. Security forces conducted a lethal crackdown that quelled nationwide demonstrations by March, with minimal reported defections from the IRGC or Basij. Succession to Mojtaba Khamenei consolidated power among hardline military and clerical factions, enabling continued operations amid the ongoing conflict, including recent diplomatic outreach via Qatar to end hostilities and lift sanctions. Economic strains and intermittent unrest persist, yet the system's command redundancies, internet controls, and elite cohesion have prevented the rapid internal fragmentation needed for collapse. With only months remaining before 2027, these factors underpin the 93.5% implied probability on "No."
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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