**Recent legislative and revenue developments have driven trader consensus that the federal deficit will not be reduced before 2027.** The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 permanently extended and expanded prior tax cuts while adding targeted deductions and new spending on defense and border security, contributing trillions to projected deficits over the decade according to Congressional Budget Office estimates. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling struck down key tariff authorities, triggering roughly $70 billion in refunds and sharply lowering customs revenue for FY2026. CBO and Treasury data show the FY2026 deficit on pace for roughly $2 trillion—above the prior year—with outlays rising on entitlements, interest payments, and defense even as individual income and payroll receipts grew. These factors, alongside continued debt accumulation past $40 trillion, have produced the strong market-implied probability against near-term deficit reduction.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?
Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?
7% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
7% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.**Recent legislative and revenue developments have driven trader consensus that the federal deficit will not be reduced before 2027.** The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 permanently extended and expanded prior tax cuts while adding targeted deductions and new spending on defense and border security, contributing trillions to projected deficits over the decade according to Congressional Budget Office estimates. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling struck down key tariff authorities, triggering roughly $70 billion in refunds and sharply lowering customs revenue for FY2026.
CBO and Treasury data show the FY2026 deficit on pace for roughly $2 trillion—above the prior year—with outlays rising on entitlements, interest payments, and defense even as individual income and payroll receipts grew. These factors, alongside continued debt accumulation past $40 trillion, have produced the strong market-implied probability against near-term deficit reduction.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,048วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.**Recent legislative and revenue developments have driven trader consensus that the federal deficit will not be reduced before 2027.** The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 permanently extended and expanded prior tax cuts while adding targeted deductions and new spending on defense and border security, contributing trillions to projected deficits over the decade according to Congressional Budget Office estimates. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling struck down key tariff authorities, triggering roughly $70 billion in refunds and sharply lowering customs revenue for FY2026.
CBO and Treasury data show the FY2026 deficit on pace for roughly $2 trillion—above the prior year—with outlays rising on entitlements, interest payments, and defense even as individual income and payroll receipts grew. These factors, alongside continued debt accumulation past $40 trillion, have produced the strong market-implied probability against near-term deficit reduction.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,048วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...**Recent legislative and revenue developments have driven trader consensus that the federal deficit will not be reduced before 2027.** The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 permanently extended and expanded prior tax cuts while adding targeted deductions and new spending on defense and border security, contributing trillions to projected deficits over the decade according to Congressional Budget Office estimates. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling struck down key tariff authorities, triggering roughly $70 billion in refunds and sharply lowering customs revenue for FY2026. CBO and Treasury data show the FY2026 deficit on pace for roughly $2 trillion—above the prior year—with outlays rising on entitlements, interest payments, and defense even as individual income and payroll receipts grew. These factors, alongside continued debt accumulation past $40 trillion, have produced the strong market-implied probability against near-term deficit reduction.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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