Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have centered on airstrikes, naval blockades, and strikes targeting military sites along the Strait of Hormuz rather than ground operations. A June memorandum of understanding paused large-scale fighting and opened negotiations on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and maritime access, though sporadic exchanges continued into September. Analysts note that any full-scale invasion would require far more troops than currently deployed in the region and carry substantial risks of casualties, prolonged occupation, and escalation, consistent with historical patterns of U.S. restraint on direct territorial commitments. Trader consensus at 85.5% against an invasion before 2027 reflects these operational limits, ongoing diplomatic channels, and the absence of any announced plans for ground forces.