Bilateral security cooperation between the United States and Mexico remains centered on intelligence sharing, joint training, and coordinated operations against cartels, with no evidence of U.S. military mobilization or congressional authorization for an invasion. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly affirmed that unilateral U.S. forces will not operate on Mexican soil, a position reinforced by recent Senate approval of limited U.S. training exercises under strict sovereignty conditions. Trader consensus around a 98.6% probability of no invasion reflects these structural barriers, including Mexico’s firm rejection of foreign intervention, the absence of active combat deployments, and historical reliance on diplomatic and economic tools over direct military action. Even amid ongoing cartel designations and border pressures, realistic shifts would require a major unprovoked escalation or policy reversal within the remaining months of 2026.