Yashar, the centrist party led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, has risen sharply in Israeli polling since mid-2026 as voters weigh alternatives to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud-led coalition ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Recent surveys from channels such as 12, 13, and Zman Yisrael place the party at roughly 19–24 seats, translating to vote shares clustered around 18–22 percent after accounting for the 3.25 percent threshold and surplus agreements. Traders appear to price the 18–20 percent band highest because mid-September averages hover near 20 percent amid stable opposition support and limited late shifts, while the narrower bands above 22 percent reflect upside risks from turnout or further erosion in Likud. The final list submission in early September, featuring figures such as former Shin Bet chief Yoram Cohen, has reinforced Yashar’s positioning without producing major polling volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено16-18% 17.9%
<16% 16%
24%+ 13%
22-24% 4.2%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 нояб. 2026 г.
<16%
16%
16-18%
18%
18-20%
39%
20-22%
31%
22-24%
4%
24%+
13%
16-18% 17.9%
<16% 16%
24%+ 13%
22-24% 4.2%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 нояб. 2026 г.
<16%
$51 Объем
16%
16-18%
$90 Объем
18%
18-20%
$224 Объем
39%
20-22%
$104 Объем
31%
22-24%
$104 Объем
4%
24%+
$136 Объем
13%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Yashar, the centrist party led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, has risen sharply in Israeli polling since mid-2026 as voters weigh alternatives to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud-led coalition ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Recent surveys from channels such as 12, 13, and Zman Yisrael place the party at roughly 19–24 seats, translating to vote shares clustered around 18–22 percent after accounting for the 3.25 percent threshold and surplus agreements. Traders appear to price the 18–20 percent band highest because mid-September averages hover near 20 percent amid stable opposition support and limited late shifts, while the narrower bands above 22 percent reflect upside risks from turnout or further erosion in Likud. The final list submission in early September, featuring figures such as former Shin Bet chief Yoram Cohen, has reinforced Yashar’s positioning without producing major polling volatility.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 8, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
Объем
$710Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 8, 2026, 4:16 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Yashar, the centrist party led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, has risen sharply in Israeli polling since mid-2026 as voters weigh alternatives to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud-led coalition ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Recent surveys from channels such as 12, 13, and Zman Yisrael place the party at roughly 19–24 seats, translating to vote shares clustered around 18–22 percent after accounting for the 3.25 percent threshold and surplus agreements. Traders appear to price the 18–20 percent band highest because mid-September averages hover near 20 percent amid stable opposition support and limited late shifts, while the narrower bands above 22 percent reflect upside risks from turnout or further erosion in Likud. The final list submission in early September, featuring figures such as former Shin Bet chief Yoram Cohen, has reinforced Yashar’s positioning without producing major polling volatility.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Объем
$710Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 8, 2026, 4:16 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Yashar, the centrist party led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, has risen sharply in Israeli polling since mid-2026 as voters weigh alternatives to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud-led coalition ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Recent surveys from channels such as 12, 13, and Zman Yisrael place the party at roughly 19–24 seats, translating to vote shares clustered around 18–22 percent after accounting for the 3.25 percent threshold and surplus agreements. Traders appear to price the 18–20 percent band highest because mid-September averages hover near 20 percent amid stable opposition support and limited late shifts, while the narrower bands above 22 percent reflect upside risks from turnout or further erosion in Likud. The final list submission in early September, featuring figures such as former Shin Bet chief Yoram Cohen, has reinforced Yashar’s positioning without producing major polling volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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