Ongoing gray-zone tactics in the South China Sea, including water cannon incidents, close maneuvers, and non-lethal confrontations at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal in July 2026, have sustained bilateral friction without crossing into live-fire military clashes. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro’s recent public rebuttal of Chinese positions on the 2016 arbitration ruling and Beijing’s counter-accusations of provocation have kept rhetoric elevated, yet both capitals have maintained diplomatic summonses, bilateral talks on resupply protocols, and channels for de-escalation. Manila’s strengthened security partnerships with the United States and Japan, alongside Beijing’s restraint from kinetic responses that could activate the Mutual Defense Treaty, underpin trader expectations that the threshold for an actual armed clash remains high through the end of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
28% вероятность
$449,816 Объем
$449,816 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
28% вероятность
$449,816 Объем
$449,816 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing gray-zone tactics in the South China Sea, including water cannon incidents, close maneuvers, and non-lethal confrontations at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal in July 2026, have sustained bilateral friction without crossing into live-fire military clashes. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro’s recent public rebuttal of Chinese positions on the 2016 arbitration ruling and Beijing’s counter-accusations of provocation have kept rhetoric elevated, yet both capitals have maintained diplomatic summonses, bilateral talks on resupply protocols, and channels for de-escalation. Manila’s strengthened security partnerships with the United States and Japan, alongside Beijing’s restraint from kinetic responses that could activate the Mutual Defense Treaty, underpin trader expectations that the threshold for an actual armed clash remains high through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
Объем
$449,816Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing gray-zone tactics in the South China Sea, including water cannon incidents, close maneuvers, and non-lethal confrontations at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal in July 2026, have sustained bilateral friction without crossing into live-fire military clashes. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro’s recent public rebuttal of Chinese positions on the 2016 arbitration ruling and Beijing’s counter-accusations of provocation have kept rhetoric elevated, yet both capitals have maintained diplomatic summonses, bilateral talks on resupply protocols, and channels for de-escalation. Manila’s strengthened security partnerships with the United States and Japan, alongside Beijing’s restraint from kinetic responses that could activate the Mutual Defense Treaty, underpin trader expectations that the threshold for an actual armed clash remains high through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$449,816Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Ongoing gray-zone tactics in the South China Sea, including water cannon incidents, close maneuvers, and non-lethal confrontations at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal in July 2026, have sustained bilateral friction without crossing into live-fire military clashes. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro’s recent public rebuttal of Chinese positions on the 2016 arbitration ruling and Beijing’s counter-accusations of provocation have kept rhetoric elevated, yet both capitals have maintained diplomatic summonses, bilateral talks on resupply protocols, and channels for de-escalation. Manila’s strengthened security partnerships with the United States and Japan, alongside Beijing’s restraint from kinetic responses that could activate the Mutual Defense Treaty, underpin trader expectations that the threshold for an actual armed clash remains high through the end of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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