Houthi forces consolidated control over Yemen’s Red Sea coast and key islands in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including Perim/Mayyun, during September 2026, enabling selective interdiction of Saudi-linked vessels under a July 20 embargo while allowing most other commercial traffic to continue. No maritime authority has declared the strait closed, and IMF PortWatch data show weekly transits remaining well above the market’s effective-closure threshold of a seven-day moving average of ten arrivals or fewer, despite a roughly 47 percent drop from pre-crisis levels. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a counteroffensive in early October that produced disputed claims of regained coastal positions, while Houthi missile and drone strikes on Saudi targets continued into late October without new confirmed attacks on merchant shipping since August. Naval escorts and rerouting by some operators have further supported sustained though reduced flows, keeping near-term closure probabilities low in trader pricing.