Strong trader consensus around "None in 2026" at 78% reflects current Chatbot Arena leaderboard standings, where leading models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google remain well below the 1550 Elo threshold despite rapid 2025 gains. Recent releases, including iterative large language model updates and benchmark evaluations, show diminishing returns on capability jumps needed for such a leap, with competitive positioning favoring incremental rather than exponential advances. Anthropic holds the highest implied probability among named companies at 12.5% due to consistent Claude performance edges, while OpenAI and Google trail amid ongoing model training timelines. Key upcoming catalysts include developer conferences and potential capability demonstrations through year-end that could shift sentiment if they demonstrate sustained benchmark acceleration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакой ИИ компании впервые попадет в 1550 на арене чат-ботов в 2026 году?
Какой ИИ компании впервые попадет в 1550 на арене чат-ботов в 2026 году?
Ни одной в 2026 78%
Anthropic 13%
OpenAI 4.2%
Google 1.8%
$126,226 Объем
$126,226 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Ни одной в 2026
78%
Anthropic
13%
OpenAI
4%
2%
xAI
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Ни одной в 2026 78%
Anthropic 13%
OpenAI 4.2%
Google 1.8%
$126,226 Объем
$126,226 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Ни одной в 2026
$26,251 Объем
78%
Anthropic
$18,694 Объем
13%
OpenAI
$15,322 Объем
4%
$12,081 Объем
2%
xAI
$9,668 Объем
1%
Alibaba
$11,378 Объем
1%
DeepSeek
$13,542 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$9,817 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$9,474 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Strong trader consensus around "None in 2026" at 78% reflects current Chatbot Arena leaderboard standings, where leading models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google remain well below the 1550 Elo threshold despite rapid 2025 gains. Recent releases, including iterative large language model updates and benchmark evaluations, show diminishing returns on capability jumps needed for such a leap, with competitive positioning favoring incremental rather than exponential advances. Anthropic holds the highest implied probability among named companies at 12.5% due to consistent Claude performance edges, while OpenAI and Google trail amid ongoing model training timelines. Key upcoming catalysts include developer conferences and potential capability demonstrations through year-end that could shift sentiment if they demonstrate sustained benchmark acceleration.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Открытие рынка: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Объем
$126,226Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Strong trader consensus around "None in 2026" at 78% reflects current Chatbot Arena leaderboard standings, where leading models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google remain well below the 1550 Elo threshold despite rapid 2025 gains. Recent releases, including iterative large language model updates and benchmark evaluations, show diminishing returns on capability jumps needed for such a leap, with competitive positioning favoring incremental rather than exponential advances. Anthropic holds the highest implied probability among named companies at 12.5% due to consistent Claude performance edges, while OpenAI and Google trail amid ongoing model training timelines. Key upcoming catalysts include developer conferences and potential capability demonstrations through year-end that could shift sentiment if they demonstrate sustained benchmark acceleration.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Объем
$126,226Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Strong trader consensus around "None in 2026" at 78% reflects current Chatbot Arena leaderboard standings, where leading models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google remain well below the 1550 Elo threshold despite rapid 2025 gains. Recent releases, including iterative large language model updates and benchmark evaluations, show diminishing returns on capability jumps needed for such a leap, with competitive positioning favoring incremental rather than exponential advances. Anthropic holds the highest implied probability among named companies at 12.5% due to consistent Claude performance edges, while OpenAI and Google trail amid ongoing model training timelines. Key upcoming catalysts include developer conferences and potential capability demonstrations through year-end that could shift sentiment if they demonstrate sustained benchmark acceleration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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