Recent model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta have pushed the top Chatbot Arena Elo scores into the 1500–1507 range as of early September 2026, with Claude Fable 5 and its variants leading amid tight competition from GPT-6 Astra and Muse Spark 1.2. Trader sentiment reflects the labs’ rapid release cadence, ongoing scaling of large language models, and widening gap between closed frontier systems and open-weight entries. Key upcoming catalysts include additional high-parameter variants, agentic capability upgrades, and potential benchmark refinements that could accelerate or cap further Elo gains before year-end. Market-implied odds hinge on whether incremental improvements compound quickly enough to clear the specified threshold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДостигнет ли какая-либо модель ИИ ___ Общего балла арены к 31 декабря?
Достигнет ли какая-либо модель ИИ ___ Общего балла арены к 31 декабря?
$183,205 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
↑ 1520
95%
↑ 1530
39%
↑ 1540
20%
↑ 1550
13%
↑ 1600
5%
↑ 1650
5%
↑ 1700
3%
$183,205 Объем
↑ 1520
$32,642 Объем
95%
↑ 1530
$12,673 Объем
39%
↑ 1540
$5,135 Объем
20%
↑ 1550
$52,494 Объем
13%
↑ 1600
$25,370 Объем
5%
↑ 1650
$9,196 Объем
5%
↑ 1700
$9,036 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta have pushed the top Chatbot Arena Elo scores into the 1500–1507 range as of early September 2026, with Claude Fable 5 and its variants leading amid tight competition from GPT-6 Astra and Muse Spark 1.2. Trader sentiment reflects the labs’ rapid release cadence, ongoing scaling of large language models, and widening gap between closed frontier systems and open-weight entries. Key upcoming catalysts include additional high-parameter variants, agentic capability upgrades, and potential benchmark refinements that could accelerate or cap further Elo gains before year-end. Market-implied odds hinge on whether incremental improvements compound quickly enough to clear the specified threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Объем
$183,205Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta have pushed the top Chatbot Arena Elo scores into the 1500–1507 range as of early September 2026, with Claude Fable 5 and its variants leading amid tight competition from GPT-6 Astra and Muse Spark 1.2. Trader sentiment reflects the labs’ rapid release cadence, ongoing scaling of large language models, and widening gap between closed frontier systems and open-weight entries. Key upcoming catalysts include additional high-parameter variants, agentic capability upgrades, and potential benchmark refinements that could accelerate or cap further Elo gains before year-end. Market-implied odds hinge on whether incremental improvements compound quickly enough to clear the specified threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$183,205Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta have pushed the top Chatbot Arena Elo scores into the 1500–1507 range as of early September 2026, with Claude Fable 5 and its variants leading amid tight competition from GPT-6 Astra and Muse Spark 1.2. Trader sentiment reflects the labs’ rapid release cadence, ongoing scaling of large language models, and widening gap between closed frontier systems and open-weight entries. Key upcoming catalysts include additional high-parameter variants, agentic capability upgrades, and potential benchmark refinements that could accelerate or cap further Elo gains before year-end. Market-implied odds hinge on whether incremental improvements compound quickly enough to clear the specified threshold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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