Marília Arraes (PDT) leads the market for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate race at 68% implied probability, reflecting her consistent position atop recent polling. In the latest Quaest survey (conducted September 4–7), she registered 17% of combined first- and second-choice votes, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 14% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 11%, with Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 7%; the top three remain within the 3-point margin of error. Arraes has held the numerical lead across multiple institutes since at least June, supported by left-aligned coalitions and higher visibility as a former federal deputy. With roughly one month until the October election and 27% of voters still undecided, late shifts in voter preferences tied to the concurrent gubernatorial contest could still influence final ordering among the competitive field.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоMarília Arraes 68%
Humberto Costa 15.2%
Mendonça Filho 6.9%
Eduardo da Fonte 2.5%
$30,271 Объем
$30,271 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Marília Arraes
68%
Humberto Costa
15%
Mendonça Filho
7%
Eduardo da Fonte
2%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Marília Arraes 68%
Humberto Costa 15.2%
Mendonça Filho 6.9%
Eduardo da Fonte 2.5%
$30,271 Объем
$30,271 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Marília Arraes
$14,968 Объем
68%
Humberto Costa
$8,517 Объем
15%
Mendonça Filho
$1,322 Объем
7%
Eduardo da Fonte
$857 Объем
2%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$570 Объем
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
$552 Объем
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
$620 Объем
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$523 Объем
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$600 Объем
<1%
Gorett Bitu
$609 Объем
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$610 Объем
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$523 Объем
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) leads the market for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate race at 68% implied probability, reflecting her consistent position atop recent polling. In the latest Quaest survey (conducted September 4–7), she registered 17% of combined first- and second-choice votes, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 14% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 11%, with Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 7%; the top three remain within the 3-point margin of error. Arraes has held the numerical lead across multiple institutes since at least June, supported by left-aligned coalitions and higher visibility as a former federal deputy. With roughly one month until the October election and 27% of voters still undecided, late shifts in voter preferences tied to the concurrent gubernatorial contest could still influence final ordering among the competitive field.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Объем
$30,271Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) leads the market for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate race at 68% implied probability, reflecting her consistent position atop recent polling. In the latest Quaest survey (conducted September 4–7), she registered 17% of combined first- and second-choice votes, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 14% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 11%, with Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 7%; the top three remain within the 3-point margin of error. Arraes has held the numerical lead across multiple institutes since at least June, supported by left-aligned coalitions and higher visibility as a former federal deputy. With roughly one month until the October election and 27% of voters still undecided, late shifts in voter preferences tied to the concurrent gubernatorial contest could still influence final ordering among the competitive field.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$30,271Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Marília Arraes (PDT) leads the market for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate race at 68% implied probability, reflecting her consistent position atop recent polling. In the latest Quaest survey (conducted September 4–7), she registered 17% of combined first- and second-choice votes, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 14% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 11%, with Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 7%; the top three remain within the 3-point margin of error. Arraes has held the numerical lead across multiple institutes since at least June, supported by left-aligned coalitions and higher visibility as a former federal deputy. With roughly one month until the October election and 27% of voters still undecided, late shifts in voter preferences tied to the concurrent gubernatorial contest could still influence final ordering among the competitive field.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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