Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding position in trader assessments for first place in the Federal District’s October 2026 Senate contest, where two seats are at stake, due to consistent polling leads of roughly nine points or more over the nearest rivals in recent surveys. Late-August and early-September data from Quaest and Real Time Big Data placed her at 25–26 percent voting intention, well ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT), Erika Kokay (PT), and Bia Kicis (PL), who cluster in the low-to-mid teens; the remaining registered candidates register negligible support. Her candidacy, formalized in mid-August after internal PL deliberations, benefits from high name recognition tied to the former presidency, alignment with the party’s gubernatorial and senatorial slate, and concentrated backing among conservative voters in the district. The second seat remains more fluid, but first-place probabilities reflect the durable gap separating the frontrunner from the field.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМишель Болсонару 83%
Лейла ду Воли 2.5%
Биа Кисис 1.4%
Эрика Кокай 1.1%
$28,214 Объем
$28,214 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Мишель Болсонару
83%
Лейла ду Воли
3%
Биа Кисис
1%
Эрика Кокай
1%
Гуто Фелисиу душ Сантус
<1%
Авенир Роса
<1%
Дэвид Хорн
<1%
Профессор Гильерме Аморим
<1%
Роналду Фонсека
<1%
Себастьян Коэльо
<1%
Марли
<1%
Тиаго
<1%
Заната
<1%
Мишель Болсонару 83%
Лейла ду Воли 2.5%
Биа Кисис 1.4%
Эрика Кокай 1.1%
$28,214 Объем
$28,214 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Мишель Болсонару
$12,178 Объем
83%
Лейла ду Воли
$4,157 Объем
3%
Биа Кисис
$4,333 Объем
1%
Эрика Кокай
$2,021 Объем
1%
Гуто Фелисиу душ Сантус
$794 Объем
<1%
Авенир Роса
$801 Объем
<1%
Дэвид Хорн
$505 Объем
<1%
Профессор Гильерме Аморим
$795 Объем
<1%
Роналду Фонсека
$674 Объем
<1%
Себастьян Коэльо
$556 Объем
<1%
Марли
$381 Объем
<1%
Тиаго
$489 Объем
<1%
Заната
$530 Объем
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding position in trader assessments for first place in the Federal District’s October 2026 Senate contest, where two seats are at stake, due to consistent polling leads of roughly nine points or more over the nearest rivals in recent surveys. Late-August and early-September data from Quaest and Real Time Big Data placed her at 25–26 percent voting intention, well ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT), Erika Kokay (PT), and Bia Kicis (PL), who cluster in the low-to-mid teens; the remaining registered candidates register negligible support. Her candidacy, formalized in mid-August after internal PL deliberations, benefits from high name recognition tied to the former presidency, alignment with the party’s gubernatorial and senatorial slate, and concentrated backing among conservative voters in the district. The second seat remains more fluid, but first-place probabilities reflect the durable gap separating the frontrunner from the field.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Объем
$28,214Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding position in trader assessments for first place in the Federal District’s October 2026 Senate contest, where two seats are at stake, due to consistent polling leads of roughly nine points or more over the nearest rivals in recent surveys. Late-August and early-September data from Quaest and Real Time Big Data placed her at 25–26 percent voting intention, well ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT), Erika Kokay (PT), and Bia Kicis (PL), who cluster in the low-to-mid teens; the remaining registered candidates register negligible support. Her candidacy, formalized in mid-August after internal PL deliberations, benefits from high name recognition tied to the former presidency, alignment with the party’s gubernatorial and senatorial slate, and concentrated backing among conservative voters in the district. The second seat remains more fluid, but first-place probabilities reflect the durable gap separating the frontrunner from the field.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$28,214Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding position in trader assessments for first place in the Federal District’s October 2026 Senate contest, where two seats are at stake, due to consistent polling leads of roughly nine points or more over the nearest rivals in recent surveys. Late-August and early-September data from Quaest and Real Time Big Data placed her at 25–26 percent voting intention, well ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT), Erika Kokay (PT), and Bia Kicis (PL), who cluster in the low-to-mid teens; the remaining registered candidates register negligible support. Her candidacy, formalized in mid-August after internal PL deliberations, benefits from high name recognition tied to the former presidency, alignment with the party’s gubernatorial and senatorial slate, and concentrated backing among conservative voters in the district. The second seat remains more fluid, but first-place probabilities reflect the durable gap separating the frontrunner from the field.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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