Rui Costa holds an 80% implied probability of finishing first in the Bahia Senate race due to consistent polling momentum. A Real Time Big Data survey released September 9 showed him at 26% consolidated support and 39% on first preferences, well ahead of Jaques Wagner at 19%, João Roma at 17%, and Angelo Coronel at 15%, with the second seat remaining competitive within the margin of error. As a former two-term governor and recent Casa Civil minister with strong PT backing and name recognition across the state, Costa benefits from voter familiarity and organizational advantages ahead of the October 4 vote. Trailing candidates face structural barriers from lower visibility and weaker coalitions, while minor contenders register negligible support. Trader consensus reflects these trends, though late shifts in turnout or alliances could still influence final placement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРуй Кошта 80%
Jaques Wagner 11.2%
Жоау Рома 3.4%
Angelo Coronel 3.4%
$28,682 Объем
$28,682 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Руй Кошта
80%
Jaques Wagner
11%
Жоау Рома
3%
Angelo Coronel
3%
Профессор Деллиана
<1%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Марсело Карвалью
<1%
Марсело Милле
<1%
Марсело Санттана
<1%
Руй Кошта 80%
Jaques Wagner 11.2%
Жоау Рома 3.4%
Angelo Coronel 3.4%
$28,682 Объем
$28,682 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Руй Кошта
$13,553 Объем
80%
Jaques Wagner
$6,008 Объем
11%
Жоау Рома
$2,802 Объем
3%
Angelo Coronel
$1,835 Объем
3%
Профессор Деллиана
$667 Объем
<1%
Carlos Sodré
$800 Объем
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$691 Объем
<1%
Марсело Карвалью
$741 Объем
<1%
Марсело Милле
$810 Объем
<1%
Марсело Санттана
$775 Объем
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa holds an 80% implied probability of finishing first in the Bahia Senate race due to consistent polling momentum. A Real Time Big Data survey released September 9 showed him at 26% consolidated support and 39% on first preferences, well ahead of Jaques Wagner at 19%, João Roma at 17%, and Angelo Coronel at 15%, with the second seat remaining competitive within the margin of error. As a former two-term governor and recent Casa Civil minister with strong PT backing and name recognition across the state, Costa benefits from voter familiarity and organizational advantages ahead of the October 4 vote. Trailing candidates face structural barriers from lower visibility and weaker coalitions, while minor contenders register negligible support. Trader consensus reflects these trends, though late shifts in turnout or alliances could still influence final placement.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Объем
$28,682Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa holds an 80% implied probability of finishing first in the Bahia Senate race due to consistent polling momentum. A Real Time Big Data survey released September 9 showed him at 26% consolidated support and 39% on first preferences, well ahead of Jaques Wagner at 19%, João Roma at 17%, and Angelo Coronel at 15%, with the second seat remaining competitive within the margin of error. As a former two-term governor and recent Casa Civil minister with strong PT backing and name recognition across the state, Costa benefits from voter familiarity and organizational advantages ahead of the October 4 vote. Trailing candidates face structural barriers from lower visibility and weaker coalitions, while minor contenders register negligible support. Trader consensus reflects these trends, though late shifts in turnout or alliances could still influence final placement.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$28,682Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Rui Costa holds an 80% implied probability of finishing first in the Bahia Senate race due to consistent polling momentum. A Real Time Big Data survey released September 9 showed him at 26% consolidated support and 39% on first preferences, well ahead of Jaques Wagner at 19%, João Roma at 17%, and Angelo Coronel at 15%, with the second seat remaining competitive within the margin of error. As a former two-term governor and recent Casa Civil minister with strong PT backing and name recognition across the state, Costa benefits from voter familiarity and organizational advantages ahead of the October 4 vote. Trailing candidates face structural barriers from lower visibility and weaker coalitions, while minor contenders register negligible support. Trader consensus reflects these trends, though late shifts in turnout or alliances could still influence final placement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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