**Recent moderation in Mexico's headline inflation, with the August 2026 annual rate at 3.26% after July's 3.12%, has shaped trader positioning for the 2026 annual outcome, yet the leading 4.00–4.49% band at 37.5% reflects expectations of a higher full-year average amid sticky core readings near 3.88%.** Banxico's decision to hold the policy rate at 6.50% since May, following earlier cuts, underscores caution over persistent core pressures and potential second-round effects from fiscal adjustments or external factors. The market-implied distribution, with the 3.00–3.99% ranges each at 20.5%, balances the recent disinflation trend against historical base effects and upcoming catalysts, including the September CPI release and the September 24 Banxico meeting. Traders view current odds as reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on a gradual path toward the 3% target by mid-2027 rather than a sharp near-term drop.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado4,00% a 4,49% 38%
3,00% a 3,49% 20.6%
3,50% a 3,99% 20.5%
4,50% a 4,99% 9%
$67,480 Vol.
$67,480 Vol.
7 jan 2027
<2,50%
6%
2,50% a 2,99%
6%
3,00% a 3,49%
21%
3,50% a 3,99%
21%
4,00% a 4,49%
38%
4,50% a 4,99%
9%
5,00% a 5,49%
3%
5,50%+
2%
4,00% a 4,49% 38%
3,00% a 3,49% 20.6%
3,50% a 3,99% 20.5%
4,50% a 4,99% 9%
$67,480 Vol.
$67,480 Vol.
7 jan 2027
<2,50%
$1,210 Vol.
6%
2,50% a 2,99%
$4,895 Vol.
6%
3,00% a 3,49%
$29,128 Vol.
21%
3,50% a 3,99%
$4,271 Vol.
21%
4,00% a 4,49%
$14,102 Vol.
38%
4,50% a 4,99%
$4,980 Vol.
9%
5,00% a 5,49%
$2,577 Vol.
3%
5,50%+
$6,318 Vol.
2%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario**Recent moderation in Mexico's headline inflation, with the August 2026 annual rate at 3.26% after July's 3.12%, has shaped trader positioning for the 2026 annual outcome, yet the leading 4.00–4.49% band at 37.5% reflects expectations of a higher full-year average amid sticky core readings near 3.88%.**
Banxico's decision to hold the policy rate at 6.50% since May, following earlier cuts, underscores caution over persistent core pressures and potential second-round effects from fiscal adjustments or external factors. The market-implied distribution, with the 3.00–3.99% ranges each at 20.5%, balances the recent disinflation trend against historical base effects and upcoming catalysts, including the September CPI release and the September 24 Banxico meeting. Traders view current odds as reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on a gradual path toward the 3% target by mid-2027 rather than a sharp near-term drop.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Mercado Aberto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$67,480Data de Término
8 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario**Recent moderation in Mexico's headline inflation, with the August 2026 annual rate at 3.26% after July's 3.12%, has shaped trader positioning for the 2026 annual outcome, yet the leading 4.00–4.49% band at 37.5% reflects expectations of a higher full-year average amid sticky core readings near 3.88%.**
Banxico's decision to hold the policy rate at 6.50% since May, following earlier cuts, underscores caution over persistent core pressures and potential second-round effects from fiscal adjustments or external factors. The market-implied distribution, with the 3.00–3.99% ranges each at 20.5%, balances the recent disinflation trend against historical base effects and upcoming catalysts, including the September CPI release and the September 24 Banxico meeting. Traders view current odds as reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on a gradual path toward the 3% target by mid-2027 rather than a sharp near-term drop.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$67,480Data de Término
8 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Recent moderation in Mexico's headline inflation, with the August 2026 annual rate at 3.26% after July's 3.12%, has shaped trader positioning for the 2026 annual outcome, yet the leading 4.00–4.49% band at 37.5% reflects expectations of a higher full-year average amid sticky core readings near 3.88%.** Banxico's decision to hold the policy rate at 6.50% since May, following earlier cuts, underscores caution over persistent core pressures and potential second-round effects from fiscal adjustments or external factors. The market-implied distribution, with the 3.00–3.99% ranges each at 20.5%, balances the recent disinflation trend against historical base effects and upcoming catalysts, including the September CPI release and the September 24 Banxico meeting. Traders view current odds as reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on a gradual path toward the 3% target by mid-2027 rather than a sharp near-term drop.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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