Rising crude oil prices above $100 per barrel amid West Asia tensions and broadening food inflation from below-average monsoon rainfall have lifted India's CPI trajectory, underpinning the 90.5% market-implied odds for a 2026 annual average at or above 4.50%. Recent prints reached 4.57% year-over-year in July, with August consensus near 4.9% and RBI projections for FY27 averaging 5.0-5.1% across quarters. Trader consensus reflects these supply-side pressures and limited near-term pass-through relief, though scenarios such as a sharp oil price reversal, improved reservoir levels supporting rabi crops, or faster monetary tightening could still pull the full-year figure below the threshold if they materialize before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado4,50%+ 91%
3,75% a 4,49% 4.8%
<0,75% 1.3%
3,00% a 3,74% <1%
$84,002 Vol.
$84,002 Vol.
11 jan 2027
<0,75%
1%
0,75% a 1,49%
<1%
1,50% a 2,24%
<1%
2,25% a 2,99%
<1%
3,00% a 3,74%
1%
3,75% a 4,49%
5%
4,50%+
91%
4,50%+ 91%
3,75% a 4,49% 4.8%
<0,75% 1.3%
3,00% a 3,74% <1%
$84,002 Vol.
$84,002 Vol.
11 jan 2027
<0,75%
$2,299 Vol.
1%
0,75% a 1,49%
$1,520 Vol.
<1%
1,50% a 2,24%
$1,580 Vol.
<1%
2,25% a 2,99%
$25,446 Vol.
<1%
3,00% a 3,74%
$2,410 Vol.
1%
3,75% a 4,49%
$30,349 Vol.
5%
4,50%+
$20,397 Vol.
91%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRising crude oil prices above $100 per barrel amid West Asia tensions and broadening food inflation from below-average monsoon rainfall have lifted India's CPI trajectory, underpinning the 90.5% market-implied odds for a 2026 annual average at or above 4.50%. Recent prints reached 4.57% year-over-year in July, with August consensus near 4.9% and RBI projections for FY27 averaging 5.0-5.1% across quarters. Trader consensus reflects these supply-side pressures and limited near-term pass-through relief, though scenarios such as a sharp oil price reversal, improved reservoir levels supporting rabi crops, or faster monetary tightening could still pull the full-year figure below the threshold if they materialize before year-end.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Mercado Aberto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$84,002Data de Término
12 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRising crude oil prices above $100 per barrel amid West Asia tensions and broadening food inflation from below-average monsoon rainfall have lifted India's CPI trajectory, underpinning the 90.5% market-implied odds for a 2026 annual average at or above 4.50%. Recent prints reached 4.57% year-over-year in July, with August consensus near 4.9% and RBI projections for FY27 averaging 5.0-5.1% across quarters. Trader consensus reflects these supply-side pressures and limited near-term pass-through relief, though scenarios such as a sharp oil price reversal, improved reservoir levels supporting rabi crops, or faster monetary tightening could still pull the full-year figure below the threshold if they materialize before year-end.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$84,002Data de Término
12 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Rising crude oil prices above $100 per barrel amid West Asia tensions and broadening food inflation from below-average monsoon rainfall have lifted India's CPI trajectory, underpinning the 90.5% market-implied odds for a 2026 annual average at or above 4.50%. Recent prints reached 4.57% year-over-year in July, with August consensus near 4.9% and RBI projections for FY27 averaging 5.0-5.1% across quarters. Trader consensus reflects these supply-side pressures and limited near-term pass-through relief, though scenarios such as a sharp oil price reversal, improved reservoir levels supporting rabi crops, or faster monetary tightening could still pull the full-year figure below the threshold if they materialize before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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