Recent data showing persistent price pressures from fuel market disruptions and elevated inflation expectations prompted the Bank of Russia to hold the key rate steady at 14% in its September 11 decision. Officials cited one-off factors lifting annual inflation near 6.3% and underlying measures shifting higher, alongside expansionary fiscal policy that narrows room for easing. Analysts' forecasts now center on 6.6% inflation for 2026, with the average key rate projected near 14.5%. Traders weigh these signals against the prior July cut and baseline expectations for gradual disinflation toward the 4% target by 2027, leaving the contest between a modest December reduction and no change nearly even. Incoming October inflation readings, credit growth trends, and any fiscal updates could shift the balance by clarifying whether underlying pressures are fading.