Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have fluctuated sharply, with July 2026 widening to $88.6 billion from $73.3 billion in June amid rising imports of computers and semiconductors alongside softer exports. Tariff adjustments, including the February 2026 rollback of certain IEEPA duties and ongoing Section 301 measures, alongside the AI infrastructure boom driving semiconductor and electronics inflows from Taiwan and Vietnam, represent the dominant forces pressuring the annual total. Offsetting support from commodity exports and agricultural trade improvements has moderated the gap, keeping trader-implied odds closely split between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion ranges. Key upcoming releases, including August data in October and further policy clarifications, will influence whether the full-year outcome settles nearer the lower or upper band of those leading probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS Trade Deficit in 2026?
US Trade Deficit in 2026?
$24,106 Wol.
$24,106 Wol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
39%
800–900B
43%
900B–1T
15%
1T–1.1T
5%
1.1T+
5%
$24,106 Wol.
$24,106 Wol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
$16,854 Wol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Wol.
6%
600–700B
$543 Wol.
10%
700–800B
$670 Wol.
39%
800–900B
$1,529 Wol.
43%
900B–1T
$1,469 Wol.
15%
1T–1.1T
$1,468 Wol.
5%
1.1T+
$1,119 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have fluctuated sharply, with July 2026 widening to $88.6 billion from $73.3 billion in June amid rising imports of computers and semiconductors alongside softer exports. Tariff adjustments, including the February 2026 rollback of certain IEEPA duties and ongoing Section 301 measures, alongside the AI infrastructure boom driving semiconductor and electronics inflows from Taiwan and Vietnam, represent the dominant forces pressuring the annual total. Offsetting support from commodity exports and agricultural trade improvements has moderated the gap, keeping trader-implied odds closely split between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion ranges. Key upcoming releases, including August data in October and further policy clarifications, will influence whether the full-year outcome settles nearer the lower or upper band of those leading probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$24,106Data zakończenia
Feb 28, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have fluctuated sharply, with July 2026 widening to $88.6 billion from $73.3 billion in June amid rising imports of computers and semiconductors alongside softer exports. Tariff adjustments, including the February 2026 rollback of certain IEEPA duties and ongoing Section 301 measures, alongside the AI infrastructure boom driving semiconductor and electronics inflows from Taiwan and Vietnam, represent the dominant forces pressuring the annual total. Offsetting support from commodity exports and agricultural trade improvements has moderated the gap, keeping trader-implied odds closely split between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion ranges. Key upcoming releases, including August data in October and further policy clarifications, will influence whether the full-year outcome settles nearer the lower or upper band of those leading probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Wolumen
$24,106Data zakończenia
Feb 28, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have fluctuated sharply, with July 2026 widening to $88.6 billion from $73.3 billion in June amid rising imports of computers and semiconductors alongside softer exports. Tariff adjustments, including the February 2026 rollback of certain IEEPA duties and ongoing Section 301 measures, alongside the AI infrastructure boom driving semiconductor and electronics inflows from Taiwan and Vietnam, represent the dominant forces pressuring the annual total. Offsetting support from commodity exports and agricultural trade improvements has moderated the gap, keeping trader-implied odds closely split between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion ranges. Key upcoming releases, including August data in October and further policy clarifications, will influence whether the full-year outcome settles nearer the lower or upper band of those leading probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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