**Solid U.S. economic momentum underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2026.** Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026, with consensus forecasts holding near 2.1–2.2% for the full year, supported by resilient consumer spending, strong AI-related capital expenditure, and productivity gains. The labor market remains balanced, with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% and August nonfarm payrolls surprising to the upside at +162,000. While core PCE inflation hovers around 3.3% and energy-driven headline pressures persist, models such as the New York Fed’s recession probability tracker show only modest near-term risk, and professional forecasters assign low odds to consecutive negative GDP quarters. Key swing factors that could elevate recession odds include renewed energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, sharper tariff impacts squeezing real incomes, or an abrupt retrenchment in AI investment that removes a major growth offset.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoRecesja w USA do końca 2026 roku?
Recesja w USA do końca 2026 roku?
Tak
8% szansa
$1,742,095 Wol.
$1,742,095 Wol.
Jan 30, 2027
Tak
8% szansa
$1,742,095 Wol.
$1,742,095 Wol.
Jan 30, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product**Solid U.S. economic momentum underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2026.** Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026, with consensus forecasts holding near 2.1–2.2% for the full year, supported by resilient consumer spending, strong AI-related capital expenditure, and productivity gains. The labor market remains balanced, with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% and August nonfarm payrolls surprising to the upside at +162,000. While core PCE inflation hovers around 3.3% and energy-driven headline pressures persist, models such as the New York Fed’s recession probability tracker show only modest near-term risk, and professional forecasters assign low odds to consecutive negative GDP quarters.
Key swing factors that could elevate recession odds include renewed energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, sharper tariff impacts squeezing real incomes, or an abrupt retrenchment in AI investment that removes a major growth offset.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Rynek otwarty: Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,742,095Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product**Solid U.S. economic momentum underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2026.** Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026, with consensus forecasts holding near 2.1–2.2% for the full year, supported by resilient consumer spending, strong AI-related capital expenditure, and productivity gains. The labor market remains balanced, with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% and August nonfarm payrolls surprising to the upside at +162,000. While core PCE inflation hovers around 3.3% and energy-driven headline pressures persist, models such as the New York Fed’s recession probability tracker show only modest near-term risk, and professional forecasters assign low odds to consecutive negative GDP quarters.
Key swing factors that could elevate recession odds include renewed energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, sharper tariff impacts squeezing real incomes, or an abrupt retrenchment in AI investment that removes a major growth offset.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Wolumen
$1,742,095Data zakończenia
Jan 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...**Solid U.S. economic momentum underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2026.** Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026, with consensus forecasts holding near 2.1–2.2% for the full year, supported by resilient consumer spending, strong AI-related capital expenditure, and productivity gains. The labor market remains balanced, with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% and August nonfarm payrolls surprising to the upside at +162,000. While core PCE inflation hovers around 3.3% and energy-driven headline pressures persist, models such as the New York Fed’s recession probability tracker show only modest near-term risk, and professional forecasters assign low odds to consecutive negative GDP quarters. Key swing factors that could elevate recession odds include renewed energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, sharper tariff impacts squeezing real incomes, or an abrupt retrenchment in AI investment that removes a major growth offset.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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