Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts for Q3 2026 real GDP growth, currently at 4.7% annualized as of early September, reflect upward revisions from strong consumer spending and private investment data, including AI-related capital expenditures. These readings support the market's leading implied probability of 42% for growth at or above 3.0%, outpacing the 25.5% on 2.0–2.5% and 22.5% on 2.5–3.0%. Solid August payroll gains of 162,000 and an unemployment rate holding at 4.1% reinforce labor market resilience, though professional forecaster medians around 2.2% and elevated core PCE inflation near 3.3% introduce downside risks ahead of the advance estimate. Trader consensus prices in this range of outcomes amid tight monetary policy.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS GDP growth in Q3 2026?
US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
≥3.0% 42%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 23%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$25,170 Wol.
$25,170 Wol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
3%
1.0–1.5%
5%
1.5–2.0%
9%
2.0–2.5%
26%
2.5–3.0%
23%
≥3.0%
42%
≥3.0% 42%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 23%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$25,170 Wol.
$25,170 Wol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$896 Wol.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$559 Wol.
3%
1.0–1.5%
$650 Wol.
5%
1.5–2.0%
$718 Wol.
9%
2.0–2.5%
$1,885 Wol.
26%
2.5–3.0%
$3,391 Wol.
23%
≥3.0%
$17,072 Wol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts for Q3 2026 real GDP growth, currently at 4.7% annualized as of early September, reflect upward revisions from strong consumer spending and private investment data, including AI-related capital expenditures. These readings support the market's leading implied probability of 42% for growth at or above 3.0%, outpacing the 25.5% on 2.0–2.5% and 22.5% on 2.5–3.0%. Solid August payroll gains of 162,000 and an unemployment rate holding at 4.1% reinforce labor market resilience, though professional forecaster medians around 2.2% and elevated core PCE inflation near 3.3% introduce downside risks ahead of the advance estimate. Trader consensus prices in this range of outcomes amid tight monetary policy.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$25,170Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts for Q3 2026 real GDP growth, currently at 4.7% annualized as of early September, reflect upward revisions from strong consumer spending and private investment data, including AI-related capital expenditures. These readings support the market's leading implied probability of 42% for growth at or above 3.0%, outpacing the 25.5% on 2.0–2.5% and 22.5% on 2.5–3.0%. Solid August payroll gains of 162,000 and an unemployment rate holding at 4.1% reinforce labor market resilience, though professional forecaster medians around 2.2% and elevated core PCE inflation near 3.3% introduce downside risks ahead of the advance estimate. Trader consensus prices in this range of outcomes amid tight monetary policy.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Wolumen
$25,170Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts for Q3 2026 real GDP growth, currently at 4.7% annualized as of early September, reflect upward revisions from strong consumer spending and private investment data, including AI-related capital expenditures. These readings support the market's leading implied probability of 42% for growth at or above 3.0%, outpacing the 25.5% on 2.0–2.5% and 22.5% on 2.5–3.0%. Solid August payroll gains of 162,000 and an unemployment rate holding at 4.1% reinforce labor market resilience, though professional forecaster medians around 2.2% and elevated core PCE inflation near 3.3% introduce downside risks ahead of the advance estimate. Trader consensus prices in this range of outcomes amid tight monetary policy.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania