Persistent energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict have pushed euro-area headline inflation to around 3% in 2026, prompting the ECB to raise its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10. Staff projections now show inflation averaging 3.0% this year and 2.5% in 2027 before reaching the 2% target only by late 2027, with core measures also revised higher. Resilient growth forecasts of 0.9% for 2026 have allowed the Governing Council to maintain a hawkish stance without pre-committing to any easing path. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, pricing additional tightening into year-end. A rapid de-escalation of geopolitical tensions or sharper-than-expected growth slowdown could still reopen the door to cuts before December.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoECB rate cut in 2026?
ECB rate cut in 2026?
5% szansa
$33,239 Wol.
$33,239 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% szansa
$33,239 Wol.
$33,239 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict have pushed euro-area headline inflation to around 3% in 2026, prompting the ECB to raise its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10. Staff projections now show inflation averaging 3.0% this year and 2.5% in 2027 before reaching the 2% target only by late 2027, with core measures also revised higher. Resilient growth forecasts of 0.9% for 2026 have allowed the Governing Council to maintain a hawkish stance without pre-committing to any easing path. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, pricing additional tightening into year-end. A rapid de-escalation of geopolitical tensions or sharper-than-expected growth slowdown could still reopen the door to cuts before December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Wolumen
$33,239Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict have pushed euro-area headline inflation to around 3% in 2026, prompting the ECB to raise its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10. Staff projections now show inflation averaging 3.0% this year and 2.5% in 2027 before reaching the 2% target only by late 2027, with core measures also revised higher. Resilient growth forecasts of 0.9% for 2026 have allowed the Governing Council to maintain a hawkish stance without pre-committing to any easing path. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, pricing additional tightening into year-end. A rapid de-escalation of geopolitical tensions or sharper-than-expected growth slowdown could still reopen the door to cuts before December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$33,239Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Persistent energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict have pushed euro-area headline inflation to around 3% in 2026, prompting the ECB to raise its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10. Staff projections now show inflation averaging 3.0% this year and 2.5% in 2027 before reaching the 2% target only by late 2027, with core measures also revised higher. Resilient growth forecasts of 0.9% for 2026 have allowed the Governing Council to maintain a hawkish stance without pre-committing to any easing path. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, pricing additional tightening into year-end. A rapid de-escalation of geopolitical tensions or sharper-than-expected growth slowdown could still reopen the door to cuts before December.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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