Robust U.S. economic expansion through mid-2026 underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative annual GDP growth. Real GDP rose at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2, following 2.1% in Q1, with positive contributions from consumer spending and business investment offsetting softer government outlays. Consensus forecasts from the IMF, Federal Reserve projections, and private analysts cluster around 2.0–2.4% growth for the full year, consistent with trend potential amid AI-driven productivity gains and resilient demand. The next quarterly release and September FOMC meeting could refine the path, yet a contraction would require a sharp deterioration in labor markets or a sustained policy shock not currently priced in.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
2% szansa
$33,280 Wol.
$33,280 Wol.
Jan 28, 2027
2% szansa
$33,280 Wol.
$33,280 Wol.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic expansion through mid-2026 underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative annual GDP growth. Real GDP rose at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2, following 2.1% in Q1, with positive contributions from consumer spending and business investment offsetting softer government outlays. Consensus forecasts from the IMF, Federal Reserve projections, and private analysts cluster around 2.0–2.4% growth for the full year, consistent with trend potential amid AI-driven productivity gains and resilient demand. The next quarterly release and September FOMC meeting could refine the path, yet a contraction would require a sharp deterioration in labor markets or a sustained policy shock not currently priced in.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$33,280Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic expansion through mid-2026 underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative annual GDP growth. Real GDP rose at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2, following 2.1% in Q1, with positive contributions from consumer spending and business investment offsetting softer government outlays. Consensus forecasts from the IMF, Federal Reserve projections, and private analysts cluster around 2.0–2.4% growth for the full year, consistent with trend potential amid AI-driven productivity gains and resilient demand. The next quarterly release and September FOMC meeting could refine the path, yet a contraction would require a sharp deterioration in labor markets or a sustained policy shock not currently priced in.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Wolumen
$33,280Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Robust U.S. economic expansion through mid-2026 underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative annual GDP growth. Real GDP rose at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2, following 2.1% in Q1, with positive contributions from consumer spending and business investment offsetting softer government outlays. Consensus forecasts from the IMF, Federal Reserve projections, and private analysts cluster around 2.0–2.4% growth for the full year, consistent with trend potential amid AI-driven productivity gains and resilient demand. The next quarterly release and September FOMC meeting could refine the path, yet a contraction would require a sharp deterioration in labor markets or a sustained policy shock not currently priced in.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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