Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence—Kimi K2.6 in April 2026, K2.7 Code in June, and flagship K3 (2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model with 1M-token context) on July 16—has traders watching for K4, but July reports of the company seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a meaningfully larger successor have not translated into any official timeline or announcement. As of mid-September 2026, focus remains on K3 deployment (Amazon Bedrock integration, Kimi Code Desktop, financial-sector tools) and mid-tier previews such as K2.8, while U.S. export controls continue to constrain access to the advanced compute required for the next major scale-up. Related prediction markets currently price only single-digit odds of a 2026 release, reflecting hardware bottlenecks, the typical multi-month gap between flagship jumps, and the absence of credible leaks or statements that would shift the implied probability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoKimi K4 released by…?
Kimi K4 released by…?
$18,003 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
3%
December 31, 2026
8%
$18,003 Wol.
October 31, 2026
$9,534 Wol.
3%
December 31, 2026
$8,468 Wol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence—Kimi K2.6 in April 2026, K2.7 Code in June, and flagship K3 (2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model with 1M-token context) on July 16—has traders watching for K4, but July reports of the company seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a meaningfully larger successor have not translated into any official timeline or announcement. As of mid-September 2026, focus remains on K3 deployment (Amazon Bedrock integration, Kimi Code Desktop, financial-sector tools) and mid-tier previews such as K2.8, while U.S. export controls continue to constrain access to the advanced compute required for the next major scale-up. Related prediction markets currently price only single-digit odds of a 2026 release, reflecting hardware bottlenecks, the typical multi-month gap between flagship jumps, and the absence of credible leaks or statements that would shift the implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Wolumen
$18,003Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence—Kimi K2.6 in April 2026, K2.7 Code in June, and flagship K3 (2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model with 1M-token context) on July 16—has traders watching for K4, but July reports of the company seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a meaningfully larger successor have not translated into any official timeline or announcement. As of mid-September 2026, focus remains on K3 deployment (Amazon Bedrock integration, Kimi Code Desktop, financial-sector tools) and mid-tier previews such as K2.8, while U.S. export controls continue to constrain access to the advanced compute required for the next major scale-up. Related prediction markets currently price only single-digit odds of a 2026 release, reflecting hardware bottlenecks, the typical multi-month gap between flagship jumps, and the absence of credible leaks or statements that would shift the implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$18,003Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence—Kimi K2.6 in April 2026, K2.7 Code in June, and flagship K3 (2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model with 1M-token context) on July 16—has traders watching for K4, but July reports of the company seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a meaningfully larger successor have not translated into any official timeline or announcement. As of mid-September 2026, focus remains on K3 deployment (Amazon Bedrock integration, Kimi Code Desktop, financial-sector tools) and mid-tier previews such as K2.8, while U.S. export controls continue to constrain access to the advanced compute required for the next major scale-up. Related prediction markets currently price only single-digit odds of a 2026 release, reflecting hardware bottlenecks, the typical multi-month gap between flagship jumps, and the absence of credible leaks or statements that would shift the implied probability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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