xAI’s Grok 5, positioned as a frontier large language model with reported Mixture-of-Experts architecture and 6–10 trillion parameters, remains in active training on the expanded Colossus 2 supercluster as of September 2026. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped after xAI prioritized faster intermediate releases, including Grok 4.5 in July and Grok 4.6 in August, with Grok 4.7 now targeted around mid-September. Musk has publicly set an end-of-2026 window while incorporating proprietary SpaceX engineering data, yet no official training-completion date, benchmarks, or post-training timeline has been confirmed. This pattern of incremental 4.x updates amid competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic has shifted trader focus toward late-2026 resolution, with markets pricing the highest probability around December. Key near-term catalysts include the 4.7 launch and any Colossus-scale training updates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGrok 5 released by...?
Grok 5 released by...?
$12,268 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
10%
November 30
21%
December 31
57%
$12,268 Wol.
October 31
$2,412 Wol.
10%
November 30
$736 Wol.
21%
December 31
$4,042 Wol.
57%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI’s Grok 5, positioned as a frontier large language model with reported Mixture-of-Experts architecture and 6–10 trillion parameters, remains in active training on the expanded Colossus 2 supercluster as of September 2026. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped after xAI prioritized faster intermediate releases, including Grok 4.5 in July and Grok 4.6 in August, with Grok 4.7 now targeted around mid-September. Musk has publicly set an end-of-2026 window while incorporating proprietary SpaceX engineering data, yet no official training-completion date, benchmarks, or post-training timeline has been confirmed. This pattern of incremental 4.x updates amid competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic has shifted trader focus toward late-2026 resolution, with markets pricing the highest probability around December. Key near-term catalysts include the 4.7 launch and any Colossus-scale training updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$12,268Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI’s Grok 5, positioned as a frontier large language model with reported Mixture-of-Experts architecture and 6–10 trillion parameters, remains in active training on the expanded Colossus 2 supercluster as of September 2026. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped after xAI prioritized faster intermediate releases, including Grok 4.5 in July and Grok 4.6 in August, with Grok 4.7 now targeted around mid-September. Musk has publicly set an end-of-2026 window while incorporating proprietary SpaceX engineering data, yet no official training-completion date, benchmarks, or post-training timeline has been confirmed. This pattern of incremental 4.x updates amid competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic has shifted trader focus toward late-2026 resolution, with markets pricing the highest probability around December. Key near-term catalysts include the 4.7 launch and any Colossus-scale training updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$12,268Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...xAI’s Grok 5, positioned as a frontier large language model with reported Mixture-of-Experts architecture and 6–10 trillion parameters, remains in active training on the expanded Colossus 2 supercluster as of September 2026. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped after xAI prioritized faster intermediate releases, including Grok 4.5 in July and Grok 4.6 in August, with Grok 4.7 now targeted around mid-September. Musk has publicly set an end-of-2026 window while incorporating proprietary SpaceX engineering data, yet no official training-completion date, benchmarks, or post-training timeline has been confirmed. This pattern of incremental 4.x updates amid competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic has shifted trader focus toward late-2026 resolution, with markets pricing the highest probability around December. Key near-term catalysts include the 4.7 launch and any Colossus-scale training updates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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