Recent rumors of an imminent Claude Opus update around September 17–18, alongside Anthropic’s pattern of frequent Opus iterations every few weeks, have concentrated trader attention on late-September dates. The latest confirmed Opus 5 arrived July 24, followed by Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1, leaving room for a rapid follow-up amid competitive pressure from other frontier labs. With no official announcement or model card yet, probabilities remain tightly bunched between September 22–25 and “no release by September 30,” reflecting uncertainty over exact timing, potential delays, and last-minute verification cycles typical in large language model releases.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNext Claude Opus released on...?
Next Claude Opus released on...?
September 24 21%
No release by September 30 20%
September 22 19%
September 23 18%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 18, 2026
September 18
4%
September 19
1%
September 20
<1%
September 21
6%
September 22
19%
September 23
18%
September 24
21%
September 25
12%
September 26
<1%
September 27
<1%
September 28
5%
September 29
12%
September 30
6%
No release by September 30
20%
September 24 21%
No release by September 30 20%
September 22 19%
September 23 18%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 18, 2026
September 18
$156 Wol.
4%
September 19
$603 Wol.
1%
September 20
$624 Wol.
<1%
September 21
$134 Wol.
6%
September 22
$579 Wol.
19%
September 23
$573 Wol.
18%
September 24
$1,002 Wol.
21%
September 25
$132 Wol.
12%
September 26
$553 Wol.
<1%
September 27
$553 Wol.
<1%
September 28
$184 Wol.
5%
September 29
$689 Wol.
12%
September 30
$390 Wol.
6%
No release by September 30
$1,400 Wol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent rumors of an imminent Claude Opus update around September 17–18, alongside Anthropic’s pattern of frequent Opus iterations every few weeks, have concentrated trader attention on late-September dates. The latest confirmed Opus 5 arrived July 24, followed by Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1, leaving room for a rapid follow-up amid competitive pressure from other frontier labs. With no official announcement or model card yet, probabilities remain tightly bunched between September 22–25 and “no release by September 30,” reflecting uncertainty over exact timing, potential delays, and last-minute verification cycles typical in large language model releases.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$8,344Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent rumors of an imminent Claude Opus update around September 17–18, alongside Anthropic’s pattern of frequent Opus iterations every few weeks, have concentrated trader attention on late-September dates. The latest confirmed Opus 5 arrived July 24, followed by Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1, leaving room for a rapid follow-up amid competitive pressure from other frontier labs. With no official announcement or model card yet, probabilities remain tightly bunched between September 22–25 and “no release by September 30,” reflecting uncertainty over exact timing, potential delays, and last-minute verification cycles typical in large language model releases.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$8,344Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent rumors of an imminent Claude Opus update around September 17–18, alongside Anthropic’s pattern of frequent Opus iterations every few weeks, have concentrated trader attention on late-September dates. The latest confirmed Opus 5 arrived July 24, followed by Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1, leaving room for a rapid follow-up amid competitive pressure from other frontier labs. With no official announcement or model card yet, probabilities remain tightly bunched between September 22–25 and “no release by September 30,” reflecting uncertainty over exact timing, potential delays, and last-minute verification cycles typical in large language model releases.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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