Iranian officials have escalated rhetoric around NPT withdrawal in response to IAEA Board resolutions in June and September 2026 citing persistent safeguards non-compliance, including blocked inspections and unverifiable enriched uranium stocks since mid-2025. Parliamentary figures, such as the presiding board spokesman, described exit as readily attainable following a reported fast-track bill, while the president has reaffirmed commitment to the treaty and international law. Iran continues operating without IAEA access yet has issued no formal notification under Article X, which requires a supreme national interest declaration and 90 days’ advance notice. Traders assign an 86% implied probability against withdrawal before 2027 due to these procedural hurdles, mixed official signals, and the short remaining timeline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
14% 確率
$550,730 Vol.
$550,730 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
14% 確率
$550,730 Vol.
$550,730 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials have escalated rhetoric around NPT withdrawal in response to IAEA Board resolutions in June and September 2026 citing persistent safeguards non-compliance, including blocked inspections and unverifiable enriched uranium stocks since mid-2025. Parliamentary figures, such as the presiding board spokesman, described exit as readily attainable following a reported fast-track bill, while the president has reaffirmed commitment to the treaty and international law. Iran continues operating without IAEA access yet has issued no formal notification under Article X, which requires a supreme national interest declaration and 90 days’ advance notice. Traders assign an 86% implied probability against withdrawal before 2027 due to these procedural hurdles, mixed official signals, and the short remaining timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
音量
$550,730終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials have escalated rhetoric around NPT withdrawal in response to IAEA Board resolutions in June and September 2026 citing persistent safeguards non-compliance, including blocked inspections and unverifiable enriched uranium stocks since mid-2025. Parliamentary figures, such as the presiding board spokesman, described exit as readily attainable following a reported fast-track bill, while the president has reaffirmed commitment to the treaty and international law. Iran continues operating without IAEA access yet has issued no formal notification under Article X, which requires a supreme national interest declaration and 90 days’ advance notice. Traders assign an 86% implied probability against withdrawal before 2027 due to these procedural hurdles, mixed official signals, and the short remaining timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$550,730終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Iranian officials have escalated rhetoric around NPT withdrawal in response to IAEA Board resolutions in June and September 2026 citing persistent safeguards non-compliance, including blocked inspections and unverifiable enriched uranium stocks since mid-2025. Parliamentary figures, such as the presiding board spokesman, described exit as readily attainable following a reported fast-track bill, while the president has reaffirmed commitment to the treaty and international law. Iran continues operating without IAEA access yet has issued no formal notification under Article X, which requires a supreme national interest declaration and 90 days’ advance notice. Traders assign an 86% implied probability against withdrawal before 2027 due to these procedural hurdles, mixed official signals, and the short remaining timeline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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