The absence of any U.S. congressional authorization, executive orders directing large-scale troop deployments, or official invasion declarations sustains the 98.2% implied probability against an invasion of Mexico in 2026. Bilateral security efforts continue through intelligence sharing, limited joint training exercises approved by Mexico's Senate, and counternarcotics coordination, while Mexican leaders consistently reject foreign combat forces on their soil and stress sovereignty. Cartel designations as terrorist organizations and U.S. pressure for stronger enforcement have raised tensions without shifting policy toward military intervention. Diplomatic and trade mechanisms, including USMCA reviews, remain the primary channels. A sudden border crisis escalation or policy reversal could theoretically alter trajectories, though structural barriers like alliance commitments and domestic costs make such shifts improbable before year-end.