US diplomatic efforts in 2026 have focused on freezing conflict lines and acknowledging de facto Russian control over roughly 19 percent of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, yet formal de jure recognition of Russian sovereignty remains blocked. Congressional measures explicitly prohibit federal actions implying such recognition, while Ukrainian leadership rejects any legal concession on internationally recognized borders. Recent shuttle diplomacy by US envoys has produced no shift in Moscow’s maximalist demands or Kyiv’s position, and statements from administration figures reinforce adherence to non-recognition precedents like the Welles Declaration. These structural and political constraints underpin trader consensus against recognition before 2027, though a comprehensive settlement package or sudden policy reversal could still alter the trajectory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$187,736 Vol.
$187,736 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
4% 確率
$187,736 Vol.
$187,736 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.US diplomatic efforts in 2026 have focused on freezing conflict lines and acknowledging de facto Russian control over roughly 19 percent of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, yet formal de jure recognition of Russian sovereignty remains blocked. Congressional measures explicitly prohibit federal actions implying such recognition, while Ukrainian leadership rejects any legal concession on internationally recognized borders. Recent shuttle diplomacy by US envoys has produced no shift in Moscow’s maximalist demands or Kyiv’s position, and statements from administration figures reinforce adherence to non-recognition precedents like the Welles Declaration. These structural and political constraints underpin trader consensus against recognition before 2027, though a comprehensive settlement package or sudden policy reversal could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 5:51 PM ET
音量
$187,736終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:51 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.US diplomatic efforts in 2026 have focused on freezing conflict lines and acknowledging de facto Russian control over roughly 19 percent of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, yet formal de jure recognition of Russian sovereignty remains blocked. Congressional measures explicitly prohibit federal actions implying such recognition, while Ukrainian leadership rejects any legal concession on internationally recognized borders. Recent shuttle diplomacy by US envoys has produced no shift in Moscow’s maximalist demands or Kyiv’s position, and statements from administration figures reinforce adherence to non-recognition precedents like the Welles Declaration. These structural and political constraints underpin trader consensus against recognition before 2027, though a comprehensive settlement package or sudden policy reversal could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
音量
$187,736終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:51 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...US diplomatic efforts in 2026 have focused on freezing conflict lines and acknowledging de facto Russian control over roughly 19 percent of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, yet formal de jure recognition of Russian sovereignty remains blocked. Congressional measures explicitly prohibit federal actions implying such recognition, while Ukrainian leadership rejects any legal concession on internationally recognized borders. Recent shuttle diplomacy by US envoys has produced no shift in Moscow’s maximalist demands or Kyiv’s position, and statements from administration figures reinforce adherence to non-recognition precedents like the Welles Declaration. These structural and political constraints underpin trader consensus against recognition before 2027, though a comprehensive settlement package or sudden policy reversal could still alter the trajectory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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