Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of its military resources, with forces registering only marginal daily advances of a few square kilometers amid high casualties and Ukrainian counter-pressure through 2026. Diplomatic contacts, including recent US envoy visits and a Putin-Trump call, have reinforced Moscow's maximalist demands without producing new fronts, while US warnings delivered in August against potential aggression toward NATO members like the Baltic states underscore alliance deterrence. Incidents such as stray drones entering Moldovan or Romanian airspace remain isolated and tied to the Ukraine theater rather than signaling broader expansion. With domestic priorities including September State Duma elections and no verified buildup for operations elsewhere, traders see little scope for a new invasion before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
7% 確率
$458,890 Vol.
$458,890 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
7% 確率
$458,890 Vol.
$458,890 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of its military resources, with forces registering only marginal daily advances of a few square kilometers amid high casualties and Ukrainian counter-pressure through 2026. Diplomatic contacts, including recent US envoy visits and a Putin-Trump call, have reinforced Moscow's maximalist demands without producing new fronts, while US warnings delivered in August against potential aggression toward NATO members like the Baltic states underscore alliance deterrence. Incidents such as stray drones entering Moldovan or Romanian airspace remain isolated and tied to the Ukraine theater rather than signaling broader expansion. With domestic priorities including September State Duma elections and no verified buildup for operations elsewhere, traders see little scope for a new invasion before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
音量
$458,890終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of its military resources, with forces registering only marginal daily advances of a few square kilometers amid high casualties and Ukrainian counter-pressure through 2026. Diplomatic contacts, including recent US envoy visits and a Putin-Trump call, have reinforced Moscow's maximalist demands without producing new fronts, while US warnings delivered in August against potential aggression toward NATO members like the Baltic states underscore alliance deterrence. Incidents such as stray drones entering Moldovan or Romanian airspace remain isolated and tied to the Ukraine theater rather than signaling broader expansion. With domestic priorities including September State Duma elections and no verified buildup for operations elsewhere, traders see little scope for a new invasion before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$458,890終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of its military resources, with forces registering only marginal daily advances of a few square kilometers amid high casualties and Ukrainian counter-pressure through 2026. Diplomatic contacts, including recent US envoy visits and a Putin-Trump call, have reinforced Moscow's maximalist demands without producing new fronts, while US warnings delivered in August against potential aggression toward NATO members like the Baltic states underscore alliance deterrence. Incidents such as stray drones entering Moldovan or Romanian airspace remain isolated and tied to the Ukraine theater rather than signaling broader expansion. With domestic priorities including September State Duma elections and no verified buildup for operations elsewhere, traders see little scope for a new invasion before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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