Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor running for re-election with the Republicanos party and a broad coalition, holds a dominant position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent Datafolha and other surveys show him at approximately 49% of voting intentions, well ahead of Fernando Haddad at 29%, with minor candidates trailing far behind following the earlier withdrawals of figures such as Kim Kataguiri. This polling consistency, combined with low rejection rates relative to opponents and expectations of a possible first-round decision, underpins the current trader consensus. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include major late-campaign developments, shifts in turnout, or unforeseen events in the final weeks before voting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日タルシジオ・ジ・フレイタス 97.8%
フェルナンド・ハダジ 1.0%
エリカ・ヒルトン <1%
キム・カタギリ <1%
$311,306 Vol.
$311,306 Vol.
2026/10/03
タルシジオ・ジ・フレイタス
98%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
1%
エリカ・ヒルトン
<1%
キム・カタギリ
<1%
マルシオ・フランサ
<1%
タルシジオ・ジ・フレイタス 97.8%
フェルナンド・ハダジ 1.0%
エリカ・ヒルトン <1%
キム・カタギリ <1%
$311,306 Vol.
$311,306 Vol.
2026/10/03
タルシジオ・ジ・フレイタス
$146,893 Vol.
98%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
$51,553 Vol.
1%
エリカ・ヒルトン
$23,068 Vol.
<1%
キム・カタギリ
$79,124 Vol.
<1%
マルシオ・フランサ
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor running for re-election with the Republicanos party and a broad coalition, holds a dominant position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent Datafolha and other surveys show him at approximately 49% of voting intentions, well ahead of Fernando Haddad at 29%, with minor candidates trailing far behind following the earlier withdrawals of figures such as Kim Kataguiri. This polling consistency, combined with low rejection rates relative to opponents and expectations of a possible first-round decision, underpins the current trader consensus. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include major late-campaign developments, shifts in turnout, or unforeseen events in the final weeks before voting.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
音量
$311,306終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor running for re-election with the Republicanos party and a broad coalition, holds a dominant position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent Datafolha and other surveys show him at approximately 49% of voting intentions, well ahead of Fernando Haddad at 29%, with minor candidates trailing far behind following the earlier withdrawals of figures such as Kim Kataguiri. This polling consistency, combined with low rejection rates relative to opponents and expectations of a possible first-round decision, underpins the current trader consensus. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include major late-campaign developments, shifts in turnout, or unforeseen events in the final weeks before voting.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$311,306終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor running for re-election with the Republicanos party and a broad coalition, holds a dominant position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent Datafolha and other surveys show him at approximately 49% of voting intentions, well ahead of Fernando Haddad at 29%, with minor candidates trailing far behind following the earlier withdrawals of figures such as Kim Kataguiri. This polling consistency, combined with low rejection rates relative to opponents and expectations of a possible first-round decision, underpins the current trader consensus. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include major late-campaign developments, shifts in turnout, or unforeseen events in the final weeks before voting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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