Trader consensus prices "Nothing" near certainty for the August market because none of the specified resolution triggers materialized by the August 31 deadline. Oil prices stayed well below the $150 threshold, no U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement or Russia-Ukraine ceasefire was finalized, the Federal Reserve avoided emergency rate action, and key waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb saw no effective closure or shift in territorial control. Routine legislative recesses and the absence of acute flashpoints further limited the chance of sudden developments. While late verification of any single criterion could theoretically alter the outcome, the narrow list of conditions and the passage of the resolution window leave few realistic paths for reversal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日何も起こらない
>99% 確率
$33,677 Vol.
$33,677 Vol.
2026/08/31
何も起こらない
>99% 確率
$33,677 Vol.
$33,677 Vol.
2026/08/31
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdfTrader consensus prices "Nothing" near certainty for the August market because none of the specified resolution triggers materialized by the August 31 deadline. Oil prices stayed well below the $150 threshold, no U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement or Russia-Ukraine ceasefire was finalized, the Federal Reserve avoided emergency rate action, and key waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb saw no effective closure or shift in territorial control. Routine legislative recesses and the absence of acute flashpoints further limited the chance of sudden developments. While late verification of any single criterion could theoretically alter the outcome, the narrow list of conditions and the passage of the resolution window leave few realistic paths for reversal.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdf
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdf
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 6:33 PM ET
音量
$33,677終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 6:33 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdfTrader consensus prices "Nothing" near certainty for the August market because none of the specified resolution triggers materialized by the August 31 deadline. Oil prices stayed well below the $150 threshold, no U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement or Russia-Ukraine ceasefire was finalized, the Federal Reserve avoided emergency rate action, and key waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb saw no effective closure or shift in territorial control. Routine legislative recesses and the absence of acute flashpoints further limited the chance of sudden developments. While late verification of any single criterion could theoretically alter the outcome, the narrow list of conditions and the passage of the resolution window leave few realistic paths for reversal.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdf
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdf
音量
$33,677終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 6:33 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "Nothing" near certainty for the August market because none of the specified resolution triggers materialized by the August 31 deadline. Oil prices stayed well below the $150 threshold, no U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement or Russia-Ukraine ceasefire was finalized, the Federal Reserve avoided emergency rate action, and key waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb saw no effective closure or shift in territorial control. Routine legislative recesses and the absence of acute flashpoints further limited the chance of sudden developments. While late verification of any single criterion could theoretically alter the outcome, the narrow list of conditions and the passage of the resolution window leave few realistic paths for reversal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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