Despite ongoing U.S. strikes on Iranian oil tankers and Iranian missile responses targeting Jordan in September 2026, none of the market's specific resolution triggers have materialized, including leadership changes for Trump or Xi Jinping, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Russian incursion into a NATO country, Republican Senate supermajority, Bitcoin extremes, or major natural disasters. Midterm election preparations and related political activity have not altered these thresholds. Traders' consensus at 83.5% for "Yes" reflects the absence of qualifying events through the first three quarters of the year, with roughly three months remaining before the December 31 resolution date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
84% 確率
$786,812 Vol.
$786,812 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
84% 確率
$786,812 Vol.
$786,812 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfDespite ongoing U.S. strikes on Iranian oil tankers and Iranian missile responses targeting Jordan in September 2026, none of the market's specific resolution triggers have materialized, including leadership changes for Trump or Xi Jinping, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Russian incursion into a NATO country, Republican Senate supermajority, Bitcoin extremes, or major natural disasters. Midterm election preparations and related political activity have not altered these thresholds. Traders' consensus at 83.5% for "Yes" reflects the absence of qualifying events through the first three quarters of the year, with roughly three months remaining before the December 31 resolution date.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$786,812終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfDespite ongoing U.S. strikes on Iranian oil tankers and Iranian missile responses targeting Jordan in September 2026, none of the market's specific resolution triggers have materialized, including leadership changes for Trump or Xi Jinping, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Russian incursion into a NATO country, Republican Senate supermajority, Bitcoin extremes, or major natural disasters. Midterm election preparations and related political activity have not altered these thresholds. Traders' consensus at 83.5% for "Yes" reflects the absence of qualifying events through the first three quarters of the year, with roughly three months remaining before the December 31 resolution date.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
音量
$786,812終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Despite ongoing U.S. strikes on Iranian oil tankers and Iranian missile responses targeting Jordan in September 2026, none of the market's specific resolution triggers have materialized, including leadership changes for Trump or Xi Jinping, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Russian incursion into a NATO country, Republican Senate supermajority, Bitcoin extremes, or major natural disasters. Midterm election preparations and related political activity have not altered these thresholds. Traders' consensus at 83.5% for "Yes" reflects the absence of qualifying events through the first three quarters of the year, with roughly three months remaining before the December 31 resolution date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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