Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian remains fully active in his official role, delivering addresses at the UN General Assembly and conducting bilateral meetings as of September 24, 2026, with no verified reports of domestic legal proceedings, opposition moves, or institutional actions targeting him for arrest. Traders assign a 99.5% probability to "No" based on this continuity, his navigation of wartime leadership since early 2026, and the absence of any recent catalysts such as parliamentary inquiries, judicial announcements, or factional challenges within Iran's political system. The four-day window to September 28 further reinforces the consensus. Only an abrupt, unforeseen development—such as a sudden health crisis or rapid escalation in internal power dynamics—could alter the outcome before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
<1% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/28
はい
<1% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/28
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Masoud Pezeshkian is arrested between market creation and September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Pezeshkian is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian remains fully active in his official role, delivering addresses at the UN General Assembly and conducting bilateral meetings as of September 24, 2026, with no verified reports of domestic legal proceedings, opposition moves, or institutional actions targeting him for arrest. Traders assign a 99.5% probability to "No" based on this continuity, his navigation of wartime leadership since early 2026, and the absence of any recent catalysts such as parliamentary inquiries, judicial announcements, or factional challenges within Iran's political system. The four-day window to September 28 further reinforces the consensus. Only an abrupt, unforeseen development—such as a sudden health crisis or rapid escalation in internal power dynamics—could alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Masoud Pezeshkian is arrested between market creation and September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Pezeshkian is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Pezeshkian is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 22, 2026, 5:02 PM ET
音量
$1,264終了日
2026/09/29マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2026, 5:02 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Masoud Pezeshkian is arrested between market creation and September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Pezeshkian is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian remains fully active in his official role, delivering addresses at the UN General Assembly and conducting bilateral meetings as of September 24, 2026, with no verified reports of domestic legal proceedings, opposition moves, or institutional actions targeting him for arrest. Traders assign a 99.5% probability to "No" based on this continuity, his navigation of wartime leadership since early 2026, and the absence of any recent catalysts such as parliamentary inquiries, judicial announcements, or factional challenges within Iran's political system. The four-day window to September 28 further reinforces the consensus. Only an abrupt, unforeseen development—such as a sudden health crisis or rapid escalation in internal power dynamics—could alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Masoud Pezeshkian is arrested between market creation and September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Pezeshkian is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Pezeshkian is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/29マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2026, 5:02 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070be91...Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian remains fully active in his official role, delivering addresses at the UN General Assembly and conducting bilateral meetings as of September 24, 2026, with no verified reports of domestic legal proceedings, opposition moves, or institutional actions targeting him for arrest. Traders assign a 99.5% probability to "No" based on this continuity, his navigation of wartime leadership since early 2026, and the absence of any recent catalysts such as parliamentary inquiries, judicial announcements, or factional challenges within Iran's political system. The four-day window to September 28 further reinforces the consensus. Only an abrupt, unforeseen development—such as a sudden health crisis or rapid escalation in internal power dynamics—could alter the outcome before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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