Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remains actively engaged in official diplomacy, including bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York and recent travel from Tehran, with no verified reports of domestic legal actions, warrants, or regime moves against him. Trader consensus at 98.9% for no arrest by September 28 reflects his sustained public role amid ongoing regional tensions and talks on issues such as the Strait of Hormuz. Historical patterns of Iranian elite infighting show internal criticism has occurred without leading to immediate detention of senior figures. A sudden shift could still arise from an abrupt power consolidation or unannounced charges within the resolution window, though current visibility makes such developments improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
1% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/28
はい
1% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/28
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abbas Araghchi is arrested between market creation and September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Araghchi is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remains actively engaged in official diplomacy, including bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York and recent travel from Tehran, with no verified reports of domestic legal actions, warrants, or regime moves against him. Trader consensus at 98.9% for no arrest by September 28 reflects his sustained public role amid ongoing regional tensions and talks on issues such as the Strait of Hormuz. Historical patterns of Iranian elite infighting show internal criticism has occurred without leading to immediate detention of senior figures. A sudden shift could still arise from an abrupt power consolidation or unannounced charges within the resolution window, though current visibility makes such developments improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abbas Araghchi is arrested between market creation and September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Araghchi is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Araghchi is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 22, 2026, 5:06 PM ET
音量
$794終了日
2026/09/29マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2026, 5:06 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abbas Araghchi is arrested between market creation and September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Araghchi is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remains actively engaged in official diplomacy, including bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York and recent travel from Tehran, with no verified reports of domestic legal actions, warrants, or regime moves against him. Trader consensus at 98.9% for no arrest by September 28 reflects his sustained public role amid ongoing regional tensions and talks on issues such as the Strait of Hormuz. Historical patterns of Iranian elite infighting show internal criticism has occurred without leading to immediate detention of senior figures. A sudden shift could still arise from an abrupt power consolidation or unannounced charges within the resolution window, though current visibility makes such developments improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abbas Araghchi is arrested between market creation and September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Araghchi is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Araghchi is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$794終了日
2026/09/29マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2026, 5:06 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remains actively engaged in official diplomacy, including bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York and recent travel from Tehran, with no verified reports of domestic legal actions, warrants, or regime moves against him. Trader consensus at 98.9% for no arrest by September 28 reflects his sustained public role amid ongoing regional tensions and talks on issues such as the Strait of Hormuz. Historical patterns of Iranian elite infighting show internal criticism has occurred without leading to immediate detention of senior figures. A sudden shift could still arise from an abrupt power consolidation or unannounced charges within the resolution window, though current visibility makes such developments improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問