Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following his father Ali Khamenei’s death in a U.S.-Israeli strike, anchors trader consensus on his continued role through year-end. The IRGC’s backing and the regime’s emphasis on institutional continuity during active conflict have sustained this positioning, even as Mojtaba remains out of public view due to reported injuries. Recent reports from August and early September note ongoing questions about his health and decision-making capacity, yet official channels describe him as directing policy from secure locations. Alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or interim council figures face structural barriers under the current clerical-security framework, while outcomes like regime collapse or exile-led transitions register low probability absent verified institutional breakdown or major escalations within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日モジュタバ・ハメネイ 84.7%
国家元首不在 4.5%
レザ・パフラヴィ 2.9%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード 1.3%
$39,365,160 Vol.
$39,365,160 Vol.
2026/12/30
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
85%
国家元首不在
4%
レザ・パフラヴィ
3%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
1%
アリレザ・アラフィ
1%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
<1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
<1%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
<1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
<1%
アッバース・アラークチー
<1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
<1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
<1%
モジュタバ・ハメネイ 84.7%
国家元首不在 4.5%
レザ・パフラヴィ 2.9%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード 1.3%
$39,365,160 Vol.
$39,365,160 Vol.
2026/12/30
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
$6,474,161 Vol.
85%
国家元首不在
$1,161,271 Vol.
4%
レザ・パフラヴィ
$679,958 Vol.
3%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
$1,131,275 Vol.
1%
アリレザ・アラフィ
$2,317,306 Vol.
1%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
$948,210 Vol.
1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
$1,021,854 Vol.
<1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
$780,494 Vol.
<1%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
$921,860 Vol.
<1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
$1,434,950 Vol.
<1%
アッバース・アラークチー
$834,760 Vol.
<1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
$441,774 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
$546,677 Vol.
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
$3,694,989 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
$243,571 Vol.
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
$3,156,951 Vol.
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
$406,291 Vol.
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
$151,258 Vol.
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
$227,643 Vol.
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
$845,417 Vol.
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
$440,839 Vol.
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
$3,359,291 Vol.
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
$397,419 Vol.
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
$5,214,448 Vol.
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
$293,721 Vol.
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
$352,114 Vol.
<1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
$863,867 Vol.
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
$205,808 Vol.
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
$266,607 Vol.
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
$313,518 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following his father Ali Khamenei’s death in a U.S.-Israeli strike, anchors trader consensus on his continued role through year-end. The IRGC’s backing and the regime’s emphasis on institutional continuity during active conflict have sustained this positioning, even as Mojtaba remains out of public view due to reported injuries. Recent reports from August and early September note ongoing questions about his health and decision-making capacity, yet official channels describe him as directing policy from secure locations. Alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or interim council figures face structural barriers under the current clerical-security framework, while outcomes like regime collapse or exile-led transitions register low probability absent verified institutional breakdown or major escalations within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
音量
$39,365,160終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following his father Ali Khamenei’s death in a U.S.-Israeli strike, anchors trader consensus on his continued role through year-end. The IRGC’s backing and the regime’s emphasis on institutional continuity during active conflict have sustained this positioning, even as Mojtaba remains out of public view due to reported injuries. Recent reports from August and early September note ongoing questions about his health and decision-making capacity, yet official channels describe him as directing policy from secure locations. Alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or interim council figures face structural barriers under the current clerical-security framework, while outcomes like regime collapse or exile-led transitions register low probability absent verified institutional breakdown or major escalations within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
音量
$39,365,160終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following his father Ali Khamenei’s death in a U.S.-Israeli strike, anchors trader consensus on his continued role through year-end. The IRGC’s backing and the regime’s emphasis on institutional continuity during active conflict have sustained this positioning, even as Mojtaba remains out of public view due to reported injuries. Recent reports from August and early September note ongoing questions about his health and decision-making capacity, yet official channels describe him as directing policy from secure locations. Alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or interim council figures face structural barriers under the current clerical-security framework, while outcomes like regime collapse or exile-led transitions register low probability absent verified institutional breakdown or major escalations within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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