**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father Ali Khamenei and dozens of other officials.** An interim council of President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, and cleric Alireza Arafi handled transitional duties under Article 111 of the constitution until the election. Trader probabilities for near-term leadership change remain low, reflecting consolidation around Mojtaba amid wartime appointments of hardline allies and suppression of dissent. Ongoing conflict, economic pressures from sanctions and blockades, nationwide protests, and Mojtaba's limited public appearances continue to shape assessments, with markets pricing modest odds of removal by late 2026 or mid-2027. Upcoming diplomatic efforts around the Strait of Hormuz and BRICS engagements could influence stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$25,233,554 Vol.
2026/09/30
9月30日
2%
10月31日
6%
11月30日
9%
12月31日
15%
2027年6月30日
29%
$25,233,554 Vol.
9月30日
$1,045,028 Vol.
2%
10月31日
$86,628 Vol.
6%
11月30日
$43,709 Vol.
9%
12月31日
$4,467,612 Vol.
15%
2027年6月30日
$303,440 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father Ali Khamenei and dozens of other officials.** An interim council of President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, and cleric Alireza Arafi handled transitional duties under Article 111 of the constitution until the election. Trader probabilities for near-term leadership change remain low, reflecting consolidation around Mojtaba amid wartime appointments of hardline allies and suppression of dissent. Ongoing conflict, economic pressures from sanctions and blockades, nationwide protests, and Mojtaba's limited public appearances continue to shape assessments, with markets pricing modest odds of removal by late 2026 or mid-2027. Upcoming diplomatic efforts around the Strait of Hormuz and BRICS engagements could influence stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ET
音量
$25,233,554終了日
2027/07/01マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father Ali Khamenei and dozens of other officials.** An interim council of President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, and cleric Alireza Arafi handled transitional duties under Article 111 of the constitution until the election. Trader probabilities for near-term leadership change remain low, reflecting consolidation around Mojtaba amid wartime appointments of hardline allies and suppression of dissent. Ongoing conflict, economic pressures from sanctions and blockades, nationwide protests, and Mojtaba's limited public appearances continue to shape assessments, with markets pricing modest odds of removal by late 2026 or mid-2027. Upcoming diplomatic efforts around the Strait of Hormuz and BRICS engagements could influence stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$25,233,554終了日
2027/07/01マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father Ali Khamenei and dozens of other officials.** An interim council of President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, and cleric Alireza Arafi handled transitional duties under Article 111 of the constitution until the election. Trader probabilities for near-term leadership change remain low, reflecting consolidation around Mojtaba amid wartime appointments of hardline allies and suppression of dissent. Ongoing conflict, economic pressures from sanctions and blockades, nationwide protests, and Mojtaba's limited public appearances continue to shape assessments, with markets pricing modest odds of removal by late 2026 or mid-2027. Upcoming diplomatic efforts around the Strait of Hormuz and BRICS engagements could influence stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問